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India may lose 15% GDP in next 28 years due to climate change

India may lose 15% GDP in next 28 years due to climate change

India stands to lose about 15 per cent of its GDP in 28 years due to climate change, according to the latest report released by international ratings firm S&P Global on Tuesday. A new report released on the impact of climate change on the global economy has shown that if this trend continues, India’s GDP may decline by as much as 15 per cent over the next 28 years.

India GDP and climate change

According to the report, not only India but also other countries in South Asia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka will also be severely affected by this. It has been known that by 2050, the economies of India and Bangladesh in South Asia could be more affected by these threats.

Sovereign Readiness assessmentTotal GDP exposure
 (wildfire, flood, sea
level rise or storms)
GDP exposure-based
on agricultural land
at risk of waGDP exposure-based
on agricultural land
at risk of water stress
Agricultural land exposed
to water stress
Population exposure (heat
Bangladesh490%0%0% 21%
India452%  10%62%40%
Sri Lanka55%5%73% 100%

The report primarily assesses the impact on GDP of threats such as floods, droughts, storms, sea-level rise, wildfires, heatwaves and water crises. The report measures climate hazards under three different scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.

The risk of floods, storms, fires and sea-level rise is estimated to increase in these countries in the coming decades, severely affecting the economy. On the other hand, if climate adaptation is not addressed, the lack of water for agriculture will seriously affect the economy of Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

According to the report, about 52 percent of India’s GDP may be affected by floods, storms, fires and rising sea levels. At the same time, its effect can be seen in 90 percent of Bangladesh, 20 percent of Pakistan and 5 percent of Sri Lanka’s GDP.

In 2021; 38 lakh people affected

In 2021, the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) recorded 432 disastrous events related to natural hazards around the world and 38 lakh people have affected in India alone due to natural disasters.

Overall, these accounted for 10,492 deaths, affected 101.8 million people, and caused approximately US$252.1 billion in economic loss.

In 2021, 435 catastrophic natural disasters were reported, while between 2001 and 2020 their average was 357 incidents per year.

This means 78 incidents more than the average recorded in 2021, the information has appeared in the emergency events database (EM-Date).

According to data published by EM-Date, a total of 435 natural disasters were recorded in 2021. Which had a negative effect on life and economy in all countries, from India to America. It is known that around 10.2 million people were affected due to these calamities.

On a daily basis, it is about 278,904, this means 29 people lose their lives every day due to these disasters while 2.8 lakhs are affected by them.

At the same time, 10,492 people lost their lives. Not only this, there was a loss of more than Rs 19.3 lakh crore due to these calamities. Although if seen, the actual figures may be much higher than this because these are the figures recorded by EM-Date, on a global scale, many such natural disasters occur every day that go unrecorded.

Not only this, it is not easy to estimate the loss of food security, health, etc. worldwide due to events such as droughts and floods. It is worth noting that earlier, in the report released by the international insurance company Munich Re, the economic loss in these disasters was estimated at more than Rs 20.7 lakh crore.

In India, 19 disasters such as floods, storms, earthquakes, landslides and glacial lake changes were recorded during this period. From the glacier break in Chamoli to the subsequent ascent in Bihar, Uttarakhand and Tamil Nadu.

During its monsoon season (June to September), India experienced a series of deadly floods that claimed 1,282 lives. In July, the Henan flood in China was particularly severe, resulting in 352 deaths, 14.5 million people affected, and a cost of US$16.5 billion.

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  • Wahid Bhat

    Wahid Bhat is an environmental journalist with a passion for covering climate change and environmental issues. He holds a degree in English Journalism (EJ) from the Indian Institute of Mass Communication and has received Media Fellow for NFI India (National Foundation for India) and Thomson Reuters Foundation. Wahid's reporting has been published in a range of respected outlets including Earth Journalism, Global Village Space, The Quint, Youth Ki Awaaz, and Devdiscourse