India may have over 1.25 million deaths due to covid by Nov 1: IHME

Ground Report | New Delhi: India may have over 1.25 million deaths; Estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) said the total number of additional COVID-19 deaths is likely to be around 1.25 million by November 1, 2021. Of this, at least one lakh more deaths are expected between July 12 and November 1.

The reported daily deaths due to the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in the last week till July 12, 2021, remained the same as the previous week, with an average of 810 deaths per day.

India may have over 1.25 million deaths

According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent global health research center of the University of Washington, the estimated number of additional deaths during the pandemic has been estimated to average 2,100 per day between July 6 and 12, 2021. The number of more deaths a week ago stood at 2,200. Therefore, the estimated daily excess deaths due to COVID-19 are 2.8 times the reported number of deaths.

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According to IHME, COVID-19 is the third leading cause of death in India after ischemic heart disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as of July 12, 2021. The daily rate of additional deaths due to COVID-19 was more than 4 parts per million in Kerala, Maharashtra, Manipur, Meghalaya, and Sikkim, the IHME report said.

Manipur has a high death rate of over 8 per million per day, which is the highest in the country. The cases of Covid-19 in Manipur have been increasing since July 2021. Till July 22, 88,050 people had been infected in the state. Of these, 10,347 are active cases; 1,424 have died.

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SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.617, which gave rise to delta variant B.1.617.2 and which contributed to the explosive growth of cases and deaths in India in April and May, is circulating in 29 states and union territories, According to IHME.

However, IHME analyzed that an additional 14,000 deaths could be prevented if people followed social distancing practices and 95 percent of the population wore a mask when outside. Wearing of masks is mandatory in all states/UTs of the country. Nearly half the population (40%) in Bihar does not wear a mask outside; IHME said that 30 percent of the population in Uttar Pradesh does not wear masks outside.

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