January 2025 warmest on record globally, despite an emerging La Niña

January 2025 marked another shocking milestone in the world’s struggle with rising temperatures, as it became the warmest January on record, despite a cooling climate phenomenon known as La Niña. This temperature anomaly follows a series of record-breaking heat years, with 2024 being recognised as the hottest year ever recorded.

January 2025 breaks temperature records

According to the European climate agency Copernicus, January 2025 global temperatures were 0.09°C (0.16°F) warmer than January 2024 and 1.75°C (3.15°F) higher than pre-industrial levels. This uptick marks the 18th month in 19 when the global average temperature has been 1.5°C higher than the pre-industrial baseline.

Copernicus findings, based on satellite measurements, weather stations, and ships, show January 2025 had an average surface air temperature of 13.23°C, 0.79°C above the 1991-2020 average. This signals record-breaking heat and a concerning trend in global warming.

The report by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for the European Commission highlights that temperatures from February 2024 to January 2025 were 0.73°C above the 1991-2020 average.

La Niña conditions were expected to temporarily cool global temperatures, but January’s heat record complicates climate predictions. La Niña, a weather phenomenon in the tropical Pacific Ocean, typically causes cooler-than-average global temperatures, but it did not have the expected effect this year.

La Niña fails to cool global temperatures

Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at ECMWF said, “January 2025 is another surprising month, continuing the record temperatures of the last two years, despite La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific and their temporary cooling effect on global temperatures. Copernicus will monitor ocean temperatures and their influence on our climate throughout 2025.”

The geographical patterns of temperature anomalies were interesting, with Europe recording temperatures 1.80°C above the 1991-2020 average. The warmth was most pronounced in southern and eastern Europe, including parts of Russia, whereas the UK and Iceland saw cooler-than-usual temperatures.

Outside Europe, significant temperature spikes were noted in North America, Alaska, and Siberia, while the United States, Southeast Asia, and eastern Russia recorded below-average temperatures.

The sea surface temperature (SST) for January 2025 was exceptionally high, just 0.19°C below the January 2024 record. Despite cooler-than-usual SSTs in the central equatorial Pacific, which may indicate a shift to La Niña, ocean temperatures in most other basins remained unusually high. This persistent warmth has significant implications for global weather patterns and sea levels.

Increased rainfall, shrinking sea ice, accelerating warming

Copernicus reported trends in precipitation and sea ice. January 2025 saw above-average rainfall in parts of western Europe, Italy, and Scandinavia, leading to flooding.

Drier conditions prevailed across northern UK, Ireland, and parts of Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia. In the Arctic, sea ice extent shrank to 6% below average, marking the lowest January level in recent history, closely tied with the 2018 record. This trend in diminishing Arctic sea ice underscores the ongoing and alarming effects of global warming.

This warmth has sparked renewed discussions among scientists, with some arguing that global warming is accelerating faster than expected. A recent study by former NASA scientist James Hansen suggested global temperatures have been warming at roughly twice the rate over the last 15 years compared to the previous 40 years.

Hansen is confident that this faster warming rate will continue for several more years. He pointed out that even after accounting for the El Niño and La Niña variations, the underlying warming trend is undeniable.

Some experts disagree with Hansen’s assessment. Researchers from Princeton and the University of Pennsylvania, including Gabe Vecchi and Michael Mann, have questioned whether the acceleration of warming is truly beyond the expected range of climate models. They argue there’s insufficient data to conclude that the recent warming is not just a temporary fluctuation.

Despite the debate, evidence, including Copernicus’ report, suggests climate change is intensifying beyond traditional predictions. As global temperatures break records, urgent action is needed to mitigate its impacts. The January 2025 patterns reinforce the importance of monitoring the climate system and suggest climate change will remain a pressing global challenge.

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