Floods Getting Worse in Central India, including MP, Studies Warn

Madhya Pradesh experiences regular flooding, particularly during the monsoon season, due to heavy rainfall and overflowing rivers like the Narmada. Several districts, including Shahdol, Hoshangabad, Jabalpur, Morena, and Bhind, are particularly vulnerable. In recent years, major flood events have occurred in 2013, 2018, 2019, and 2022, with varying degrees of impact on affected populations and infrastructure.

If we look at the national records, India has faced floods almost every year for the past 75 years. Since 1950, the country has experienced 325 major flood events, averaging more than four per year. Most of them have hit central India, where farmers rely on rain. Between 1950 and 2015, floods affected 825 million people, left 17 million homeless, and killed 69,000. In the next nine years, 57 more floods added 12,000 deaths to that toll. 

Floods are becoming more frequent, and the damage they cause is increasing.

“We are witnessing a clear climatic shift in monsoon patterns across South Asia,” said Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune and author of several United Nations climate reports. 

“The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events are increasing, often overwhelming drainage systems in cities and triggering flash floods,” said Koll, a co-author of the 2017 study that was published in Nature Communications. The research was conducted by a multi-institutional team of scientists from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Pune, IIT Bombay, the University of Maryland, and European climate research centres.

The Pune-based scientist, Koll said that rapid urbanisation, shrinking floodplains and loss of natural drainage also exacerbate damage from heavy rains. Koll said that most government response currently comes after disasters, and there is a lack of long-term planning.

“In the future monsoon, extreme rains are projected to intensify further, in addition to sporadic water shortages. Hence, we need proactive, long-term strategies that combine science, policy, and community engagement,” he said.

As Flood Losses Soar

Floods now cause over $30 billion in losses each year around the world. India accounts for about $3 billion of that, 10% of the total. Central India sees much of this damage.

Heavy rain is becoming more common. Average monsoon rain has dropped by about 10% since the 1950s. But extreme downpours have gone up by about 75%. These intense rains now happen more often and in more places.

The study shows that widespread extreme rainfall events across central India have tripled since 1950. These events cause large-scale floods in states like Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Assam, Meghalaya, and parts of the Western Ghats, including Goa, North Karnataka, and Central Kerala.

This trend is now visible beyond central India. Since June 20, Himachal Pradesh has recorded 91 deaths from monsoon-related events. These include landslides, cloudbursts, flash floods, and road accidents triggered by heavy rain. Fifteen people died in cloudbursts, while others drowned or were killed in landslides and electrocutions this year. 

The worst-hit districts are Mandi, Kangra, and Kullu. Over 750 houses have been destroyed, and total damage is estimated at ₹74 crore. Public infrastructure, farmland, and power lines have also taken a hit.

Impact of Changing climate

According to a study, winds from the Arabian Sea now play a bigger role than local weather. Warmer air and water push more moisture inland, especially into central India.

As per the study, extreme rainfall over central India is increasingly driven by moisture from the Arabian Sea, which now contributes 36% of the total, more than the Bay of Bengal. Since the 1980s, this connection has strengthened, with warmer sea surface temperatures boosting monsoon winds and rain variability. Weak Bay of Bengal systems often act as triggers, but the main moisture supply comes from the Arabian Sea. 

The study links this shift to rising regional temperatures and highlights early warning signs, such as sea warming weeks in advance. Better forecasting, it says, could help limit flood damage.

Extreme Weather Surges in MP

The latest floods in Madhya Pradesh reflect the trend. On July 10, heavy rain in upstream districts caused the Narmada River to swell, flooding Shahdol city and surrounding areas.

Hospitals were inundated. Railway tracks were submerged. A couple died when their hut collapsed. Authorities had to open dam gates and deploy disaster teams.

Madhya Pradesh is prone to floods, droughts, and heat waves. Recently, it faced extreme weather more frequently, significantly impacting lives and the economy.

Extreme weather events have made Madhya Pradesh one of India’s most disaster-prone states. In 2024 alone, the state recorded 373 deaths, over 8,000 houses damaged, and more than 25,000 hectares of crops destroyed due to floods, heavy rainfall, and other hydro-meteorological events.

Between 2018 and 2024, Madhya Pradesh averaged 266 disaster-related deaths each year, with recurring damage to farmland and homes. The data shows a clear escalation, with 674 deaths recorded in 2019, the highest in recent years. These events are becoming more frequent and intense, with 176 days of extreme weather recorded in 2024, nearly double the national average.

These shifts, he explains, are creating severe consequences for both rural and urban populations.

Madhya Pradesh faces extreme weather events more frequently than any other Indian state, with regular occurrences of heavy rainfall and droughts that severely affect agriculture and livelihoods.

Recent studies show that what’s happening in Madhya Pradesh is not isolated. Central India is becoming a hotspot for extreme weather.

A new study by IPE Global and Esri India warns that climate change will further increase extreme rainfall intensity by 43% across India, with major cities expected to face a twofold rise in heatwave days by 2030. These prolonged heat waves are likely to trigger more frequent and erratic rainfall.

“Extended heat wave conditions are likely to trigger more frequent, incessant and erratic rainfall events,” said Abinash Mohanty, co-author of the study. He added, “The frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of these extreme heat and rainfall events have risen significantly in recent decades.”

A recent meta-analysis also confirms that extreme rainfall events (EREs) across India are increasing in frequency and intensity during the southwest monsoon. Central India is among the most affected due to changes in monsoon circulation and the rising influence of synoptic systems. 

The study links these extremes to warming in the Indian Ocean and enhanced atmospheric moisture. While northeast India is seeing a drop in EREs, northwest India and coastal areas are reporting more intense events.

The review also points out how active monsoon phases often lead to floods, especially in densely populated and vulnerable regions. Researchers suggest that combining weather models with machine learning could improve forecasts. Future projections based on CMIP6 models show central India could face more severe EREs if current trends continue.

The IPE study found a 15-fold increase in extreme heatwave days since 1993, with the last decade showing even sharper rises. Mohanty said, “We found that the monsoon season in India is witnessing an extended summer-like condition except on non-rainy days.”

Madhya Pradesh is facing more floods, heavier rain, and rising heat. These changes are linked to climate shifts, urban growth, and poor planning. The damage is growing, more deaths, destroyed homes, and lost crops.

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