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Extreme weather to top global risks for next decade, warns WEF

The WEF Global Risks Report 2024 ranks extreme weather as the top long-term threat. Rising global temperatures, pollution, and biodiversity loss are worsening risks. Urgent action is needed to address interconnected environmental and geopolitical crises.

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Extreme weather events remain the most serious long-term threat, according to the latest Global Risks Report 2024 by the World Economic Forum (WEF). The report highlights the urgent need for action as climate change leads to more frequent and severe disasters. For the second year in a row, extreme weather has been ranked as the biggest long-term global risk.

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Extreme weather to top global risks for next decade

The report was released before the WEF’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, from January 20 to 24, 2025. It focuses on global challenges, including climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution. This year’s theme, “Collaboration for the Intelligent Age,” emphasises the need for countries to work together to solve these urgent environmental problems.

Since the first Global Risks Report in 2006, extreme weather events have been classified as major environmental threats. Since 2014, they have ranked among the top six global risks. Between 2017 and 2020, extreme weather was the most dangerous risk worldwide. In 2024, it has claimed the top position.

The report notes that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and expensive. Over the past 50 years, inflation-adjusted costs for weather-related disasters have risen by nearly 77%.

The report gathers insights from over 900 global experts, who ranked risks based on their severity over short-term (1-2 years) and long-term (10 years) periods.

In the short term (2025-2027), extreme weather ranks as the second most severe global risk. More countries recognise it as a major concern—28 now list extreme weather among their top five short-term risks, up from 24 last year.

The United States is vulnerable, ranking fifth in short-term risks. Wildfires in Los Angeles are projected to become the costliest in U.S. history, with potential losses exceeding $200 billion.

Extreme weather risks increased globally

In 12 countries, including the Dominican Republic, Oman, Bangladesh, and Greece, extreme weather ranks among the top three risks. In Mauritius and Malawi, concerns over extreme weather have risen significantly—these countries jumped from fifth to second place in their risk rankings compared to 2024.

The report shows that climate change is not a standalone issue; it’s worsening other global risks. For example, extreme weather is increasing forced migration and displacement, now ranked as the eighth most severe short-term risk.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned that 2024 was the hottest year on record. Global temperatures are expected to rise into 2025, making extreme weather events more common and destructive.

Environmental risks threaten Earth's stability

Alongside extreme weather, four other environmental risks—biodiversity loss, major changes to Earth’s systems, natural resource shortages, and pollution—are among the top ten threats for the next decade. These interconnected risks are pushing the planet into a fragile state.

Mark Elsner, head of the Global Risks Initiative at WEF, stressed the need for urgent collective action. “From conflicts to climate change, we face interconnected crises that demand coordinated action,” he said.

The report highlights four global forces—technology, geopolitics, climate change, and population shifts—that will shape risks over the next decade. These factors are expected to grow more complex and interconnected, making global challenges harder to manage.

Pollution is another major concern in the report, ranking as the tenth most severe long-term risk. It’s linked to climate change and driven by unsustainable production and consumption habits.

Pollution harms ecosystems and health

The report warns that by 2035, pollution will weaken ecosystems, reducing their ability to support life. Pollution is already harming public health, with rising heart disease, respiratory issues, and cancer cases linked to contaminated air, water, and land.

Despite global efforts to cut emissions through net-zero targets, pollution is often overlooked in climate action plans. The report stresses that if governments fail to address both pollution and climate change together, risks to human health and ecosystems will grow.

The WEF urges countries to take stronger action against short-lived climate pollutants like black carbon, methane, and hydrofluorocarbons, which have severe environmental and health effects. However, many governments lack clear strategies to tackle these issues in their green transition plans.

Without urgent action, extreme weather, pollution, biodiversity loss, and climate change will threaten economies, public health, and ecosystems worldwide.

Looking ahead to 2025

As we enter 2025, world leaders likely feel uncertainty and concern after 2024, a year of elections, global tensions, and environmental disasters. The latest WEF Global Risks Report presents a grim outlook. The overall state of global risks is described as “bleak,” with increasing instability in the short term and worsening challenges over the next decade.

This year’s report highlights the rise of state-based armed conflict as the most immediate global threat in 2025. Just two years ago, war between states wasn’t considered a major risk. However, ongoing conflicts, like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, wars in the Middle East, and instability in Sudan, have pushed it to the top. The report notes the world is experiencing some of the worst divisions since the Cold War, making new or worsening risks more likely.

Familiar risks remain. The report, based on input from over 900 experts surveyed between September and October 2024, reveals that 52% expect instability in the next two years, while 31% predict greater turbulence, and 5% foresee catastrophic risks. Looking ahead, 62% believe the next decade will be marked by ongoing global instability.

Extreme weather remains a top risk in the short and long term. 2024 was the hottest year, with severe weather causing widespread damage. Many young people and civil society rank extreme weather as the most critical risk in the coming years. Over the next decade, extreme weather is the number one concern across all groups surveyed. Pollution is seen as a more urgent short-term issue, while biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse are greater long-term threats.

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