China’s emissions fall as Clean energy overtakes coal for first time

China’s carbon emissions have declined over the past 12 months, marking a major shift in the country’s energy landscape. This drop wasn’t due to a slowdown in the economy—it was driven by a rise in clean energy sources like wind, solar, and nuclear power, which outpaced coal even as electricity demand continued to rise.

According to a new analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, this is the first time China’s emissions fell because clean power growth displaced coal. “Electricity supply from new wind, solar and nuclear capacity was enough to cut coal-power output even as demand surged, whereas previous falls were due to weak growth,” the report said. It was published by Carbon Brief.

Data from the report shows a 1.6% drop in China’s emissions in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Over the full year ending March 2025, total emissions declined by about 1%. A closer look shows that electricity-related emissions dropped nearly 6% in the first quarter alone—despite a 2.5% rise in electricity demand.

“The sharp decline in coal-fired electricity, even with rising demand, shows a structural shift,” Myllyvirta noted. “China’s huge investment in clean energy is paying off. Renewables are now cheaper and more reliable than coal.”

These changes align with forecasts Myllyvirta had made in earlier years. “I predicted coal use would peak by 2024, and the data supports that,” he said. “Coal plants are running less often, and renewables are taking over.”

The transport sector is also showing progress. China’s oil demand peaked in early 2024 and has since fallen. Electric vehicles (EVs) now make up over 30% of new car sales. In 2024, China sold more than 82,000 electric heavy-duty trucks—a market almost nonexistent elsewhere.

“The electrification of transport is moving faster than expected,” Myllyvirta said. “And it’s not just cars. Buses, vans, and trucks are all switching to electric.”

In the industrial sector, the picture is mixed. Cement production is down nearly 28% since 2021 due to reduced real estate activity. Steel production, however, remains high. There’s also strong growth in the coal-to-chemicals sector, driven by energy security concerns and cheap domestic coal.

“The industrial sector is where emissions are more stubborn,” he said. “Steel and chemicals, especially, still rely heavily on coal.”

Despite these challenges, China’s progress is significant. “If China locks in these trends, the impact on global emissions will be massive,” Myllyvirta said. “China’s actions will influence climate policies and clean tech investment worldwide.”

Still, risks remain. “Any big stimulus focused on heavy industry could reverse this progress,” he warned. “The next five-year plan will be crucial.”

China’s clean economy—batteries, EVs, solar, and wind—accounted for about half of its economic growth in 2024. Myllyvirta believes emissions may have already peaked in late 2024. If clean energy growth continues, China could cut power-sector emissions by over 20% by 2030.

“This is a turning point,” he said. “The world should watch closely. What happens in China will shape the global climate future.”

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