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In 2022, a staggering 21 million tonnes (MT) of plastics leaked into the environment worldwide, according to a new interim report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
On November 11, 2023, just two days before the third session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastic Pollution (INC3), they released the report. The session is scheduled to occur from November 13-19, 2023, in Nairobi, Kenya.
21 Million Tonnes of Plastic Leaked in 2022
The interim report, titled “Towards Eliminating Plastic Pollution by 2040: A Policy Scenario Analysis,” includes preliminary findings on the benefits of comprehensive actions as well as the costs of delayed or limited action.
The report provides a clear roadmap for governments and policymakers to tackle the full lifecycle of plastic pollution by curbing production and demand, increasing circularity, closing leakage pathways, and bolstering recycling rates.
The document also highlights that early, stringent and coordinated policy action with global ambition could reduce plastic waste generation in 2040 by a quarter below baseline. It suggests that such action could virtually eliminate mismanaged waste by 2040 (from 119 to 4 MT). Consequently, there would be nearly no plastic leakage (1.2 MT in 2040). Nevertheless, the stocks of plastics in rivers and oceans would still increase from 152 MT in 2020 to 226 MT in 2040 (74 MT less than in the baseline).
The report presents several scenarios, including a baseline scenario where plastics use would continue to grow, leading to a 50% increase in leakage of plastics to the environment by 2040. It also outlines a scenario of uncoordinated policy action by countries, which could slow down growth in plastics use but would still result in an increase in plastics use and waste by more than 50% above 2020 levels by 2040.
Bold policies cut plastic waste
The report highlights that global ambition with early, stringent, and coordinated policy action could cut plastic waste generation in 2040 by a quarter below the baseline and virtually eliminate mismanaged waste by 2040. However, such ambitious policy action would cost 0.5% of global GDP in 2040 below the baseline. These costs exclude the avoided costs of inaction and must be viewed in the context of vastly improved environmental outcomes.
Experts expect rapidly growing countries with less developed management systems, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, to incur the most significant costs of global ambitious action as a percentage of GDP. Estimates suggest that the investment required for waste collection, sorting, and treatment will exceed 1 trillion USD between 2020 and 2040 for non-OECD countries combined. Limiting waste generation can help keep these costs of collection, sorting, and treatment in check. The substantial financial needs and uneven distribution of costs point to a need for international cooperation.
Furthermore, we must overcome significant technical and economic barriers to eliminate plastic leakage by 2040. This requires achieving breakthroughs in recycling and scaling up well-functioning international markets for scrap and secondary plastics.
Action costs, benefits outweigh
The report said, "Implementing such an ambitious policy action would require an expenditure of 0.5% of the global GDP in 2040 below the baseline. However, this calculation doesn't include the costs we could avoid by not taking any action, and it's important to understand that the environmental outcomes would significantly improve.
Moreover, a comprehensive approach that includes both upstream and downstream measures would lower the transition costs. Even though taking action at a later date might bring economic benefits in the short term, it would carry long term societal and environmental implications."
The report emphasizes the need to overcome significant technical and economic barriers to eliminate plastic leakage by 2040, including making breakthroughs in recycling and scaling up well-functioning international markets for scrap and secondary plastics.
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