1.5 degree limit could be exceeded as early as 2024

The global average temperature is projected to be approximately 1.5 degrees higher than pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) in 2024. This is precisely the upper limit that the Paris Agreement recommended not to surpass by the end of this century. However, the key factor is whether this trend will persist over the long term, as highlighted by the newly appointed Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Celeste Saulo.

In her inaugural media interaction after assuming office on January 1, the Argentine scientist noted that the temperature was already nearing 1.5 degrees in 2023 (with 1.45 degrees being recorded as per the latest WMO report). She further added that scientific predictions indicate that 2024 is likely to be a warmer year due to the influence of El Niño.

"What we really need to be concerned about is the long-term trend of this increase." "We therefore hope to be close to or above the anomaly of 1.5 degrees, and exceeding that threshold is a warning, although what we have to be truly worried about is the long-term trend," highlighted the Argentine.

Celeste Saulo - OMM

Saulo exemplified that if a global average temperature stays 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels for 10 consecutive years, it would really serve as a sign that we are not meeting the Paris Agreement. This agreement warns of an even greater increase in temperatures and climate catastrophes if we allow that situation to happen.

Atmosphere tells us that we must act

"The atmosphere and the data are telling us that we must act," summarized Saulo, who succeeded the Finnish Petteri Taalas after eight years as head of the UN meteorological agency.

In her presentation to the media, the expert stated that the world "faces one of its most complex challenges", that of climate change, in the face of which humanity " must act as a global family, united by shared responsibility, a vision for future of our children, and a common destiny".

"We have an opportunity, an obligation and a possibility to change the narrative on climate matters," said the Latin American scientist, the first woman to lead the WMO in the organization's 73-year history.

"What women bring to organizations is diversity, we have different ways of thinking, of looking for solutions, and it is not necessarily better but it is different," Saulo summarized in this regard.

The Secretary-General added that in her mandate she hopes to prioritize regional and field activities, "to ensure that innovation reaches all member countries, especially those with a lower level of development."

In this sense, Saulo stressed the importance of the WMO program already underway to ensure that all countries in the world have early warning systems to prevent natural disasters.

"We must ensure that every human being on Earth has access to timely and authoritative weather and climate risk information to save lives," he said.

Record-breaking global temperatures, potential milestone

In 2023, global temperatures broke records, and it is projected that 2024 could be even warmer. The EU’s Copernicus Earth observation programme reported that 2023 became the warmest year on record, surpassing 2016, due to unprecedented global temperatures from June onwards.

Several ‘temperature highlights’ were noted in 2023, including confirmation of 2023 as the warmest calendar year since records began in 1850, unusually high global average sea surface temperatures, and record low extents of Antarctic sea ice in eight months of the year. Additionally, a large number of extreme events, such as heatwaves, floods, droughts, and wildfires, were recorded worldwide.

Copernicus also predicted that a 12-month period ending in January or February 2024 is likely to exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level. The UK’s Meteorological Office (the Met Office) also projected that global temperatures could temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold in 2024, making it another record-breaking year.

The Met Office attributed the spike in global temperatures in 2023 to a temporary and partial boost by the current El Niño event warming the tropical Pacific. However, Professor Adam Scaife at the Met Office emphasized that the main driver for record-breaking temperatures is the ongoing human-induced warming since the start of the industrial revolution.

The Met Office forecasted that the average global temperature for 2024 would be between 1.34°C and 1.58°C above the average for the pre-industrial period. Dr Nick Dunstone, who led the forecast, stated that this forecast aligns with the ongoing global warming trend of 0.2°C per decade, boosted by a significant El Niño event.

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