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- The UN's Global Stock Take (GST) report warns of falling short of the Paris Agreement's 1.5C target.
- Global emissions are rising, and nations need to match words with action to curb them.
- The GST is a comprehensive assessment of climate action, providing a roadmap for the future.
- COP28's success depends on how governments respond to the GST's recommendations.
The world received a warning from the United Nations as it released its first official assessment, or Global Stock Take, of global progress on climate change since the historic Paris Agreement of 2015. This assessment report explicitly declares that the world is off track in terms of meeting the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5C.
The report warns, "The hope for keeping the 1.5C target within reach is rapidly diminishing and progress towards this end is still inadequate."
Under the Paris Agreement, all countries agreed to curb greenhouse gas emissions nearly eight years ago. However, the UN believes that all countries have not matched words with action. Global emissions are continuously increasing, not decreasing.
Before proceeding further, we need to understand some basic things.
What is Global Stock Take (GST)?
The Global Stock Take has compiled the most comprehensive assessment of global climate action to date, using scientific data and input from governments, companies, and civil society over the past 2 years. It assesses our standing on action against climate change and outlines a roadmap to address the crisis throughout this decade.
What difference does it make?
The success of COP28 depends on how governments respond to the recommendations and warnings of this stock take. Broad aspirational goals are not sufficient at this stage. This week the UN will publish a "technical report" summarizing input from experts across the board.
How will this process work?
Countries will review the report and will meet to discuss the contents after releasing it in early September. Countries will take the next steps and make the decisions at COP28 based on the insights provided by the initial report, shedding light on high-level events.. An "options paper" is due before the Dubai summit in November. Meanwhile, South Africa and Denmark will lead the GST consultations on behalf of the COP28 hosts.
To meet the 1.5C target, this Stock Tech report emphasizes that emissions must fall by 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels. However, the report states that emissions to date are not in line with required global mitigation pathways.
A global stock-take exercise created under the Paris rules incorporates this critical analysis. Starting this year, countries must start evaluating their collective progress every 5 years - to inform their following climate action commitments to be announced in 2025.
Expert opinion
Experts say that the stocktake findings provide a "clear blueprint" for the scale of emissions cuts needed.. The report urgently calls for a "whole-of-society approach" to catalyze "rapid decarbonization" across all sectors.
Additionally, it states the urgent need to phase out fossil fuels rapidly, completely end deforestation, and deploy clean energy at a rapid pace. However, limiting warming to 1.5C is still not easy.
The United Nations has reached this conclusion just a few months before the important COP28 climate summit to be held in Dubai in November. In response, the host country, UAE, has called for "ambition and urgency." However, those who understand the matter deeply believe that now mere words will not suffice.
Hope in Climate Action Report
“The report reflects current policy and finance shortfalls, but offers hope through countries' climate plans and scenarios that limit temperature rise,” says Dhruba Purkayastha of the Climate Policy Initiative. It precisely emphasizes transition, equity, and inclusion alongside climate goals. There is a need for financing for Losses and Damages, as public debt is a burden on many developing countries. Shifting to low carbon technologies can aid industrial decarbonization in India.
Further, Aarti Khosla, Director of Climate Trends, believes, “The report makes it clear that there is no shortage of words, but there is insufficient action. It is important to ensure real action is taken in this decade to stop climate change. International cooperation is important regardless of geopolitics. The world is weakening – so organized political will is the answer.”
RR Rashmi of TERI opines, “The report underlines the inadequacy of current emission reduction pledges. All that is needed is greater ambition and action to meet the Paris goals. Disappointingly, it lacks any sign of bridging the ambition gap or sharing responsibility. The G20 will likely emphasize goals, technology and change over ambition and finance. “Progress depends on a strong NDC.”
Urgent action needed for climate
Finally, it must be remembered that the Global Stock Take Report grades countries only on their climate action promises. At present these grades are not good. But we cannot fail when lives are at stake. The COP28 meeting should be a turning point. This must be where words ultimately take the shape of the immediate action required.
Small, slow steps will not be enough in this crucial decade. The choices made now will impact generations to come. Leaders have a clear choice – step up or step aside and put the survival of the people above politics. Now the time for making excuses is over. The science is clear, the path is determined.
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