WMO releases forecast: What will world's weather be next 3 months?

Before understanding the weather trends for March-May 2025, it’s important to analyse the last three months (November 2024 - January 2025). Previous weather patterns influence future conditions.

Recent climate trends (Nov 2024 - Jan 2025)

Between November 2024 and January 2025, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were warmer than normal in most oceans, but the central and eastern Pacific Ocean remained cooler. The eastern Pacific temperature was normal, but the Nino 3.4 region recorded the biggest decline, indicating a weak La Niña pattern.

La Niña and El Niño are part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), affecting global temperatures and weather. El Niño brings warmer conditions, while La Niña leads to cooler temperatures. Scientists noted the Indian Ocean was cooler than normal during this period, with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) anomaly below average.

Meanwhile, the northern and southern tropical Atlantic Ocean remained warmer than normal, showing a heat pattern lasting over a year.

Expected weather trends (March-May 2025)

From March to May 2025, the Pacific Ocean’s sea surface temperatures are expected to be normal in key regions (Nino 3.4 and Nino 3), suggesting neutral ENSO conditions without El Niño or La Niña dominance. The Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected to stay average, while the Atlantic Ocean will likely remain warmer than normal.

Most oceans are expected to be warmer than usual, except for the equatorial eastern Pacific. Global temperatures are predicted to be above normal.

Western coastal India may experience higher-than-normal temperatures due to atmospheric patterns. Other regions likely to face above-normal heat include:

• Most of Africa

• Madagascar

• Almost all of Asia

• Some areas of South America

• The Caribbean

• Central America

• Southern and eastern North America

• Western Pacific

• All of Europe

The WMO warned that extreme heat could affect the Arabian Peninsula, Northeast Asia, western coastal India, and Southeast Asia. A circular heat zone may form in the North and South Pacific Oceans, near Indonesia and Australia.

Rainfall forecast (March-May 2025)

Despite neutral ENSO conditions, March-May 2025 rainfall patterns are expected to align with La Niña trends. Normal or below-normal rainfall is likely along and south of the equator, from 150° East to the west coast of South America.

Regions expecting above-normal rainfall:

• Central and eastern islands near Indonesia and Australia

• The southern Arabian Sea

• The Bay of Bengal

• Southeast Asia

Regions expected to see below-normal rainfall:

• Southern Arabian Peninsula

• Central Asia

• Central and southern North America, especially the southwest

• Northern Central America

In Africa, rainfall predictions remain uncertain, but some areas may experience drier-than-usual conditions.

The next three months will likely bring warmer ocean temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns. While no strong El Niño or La Niña is expected, heatwaves in several regions and uneven rainfall could impact agriculture, water resources, and daily life. Scientists emphasise these trends to prepare for potential climate impacts.

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