Why was 2024 hottest year, what does it mean for our future?

2024 is confirmed as the hottest year ever recorded globally, marking a significant milestone in the climate crisis. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the average global temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a critical threshold in the Paris Agreement. This underscores the urgent need for global action to combat climate change.

Record-breaking temperatures

“All global temperature datasets show 2024 was the hottest year since 1850,” said Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. “Humanity controls its destiny, but our response to the climate challenge should be evidence-based. The future is in our hands – swift and decisive action can alter the future climate trajectory.”

According to C3S, the global average temperature in 2024 reached 15.10°C, 0.72°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.60°C above pre-industrial levels. This year marks the first calendar year where the temperature exceeded the 1.5°C mark. Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at the ECMWF, emphasized the gravity of this milestone, stating, “We are teetering on the edge of passing the 1.5°C level defined in the Paris Agreement. These high global temperatures, coupled with record atmospheric water vapour levels in 2024, meant unprecedented heatwaves and heavy rainfall events, causing misery for millions.”

Monthly and seasonal patterns

The record-breaking heat was consistent throughout the year. From January to June 2024, each month was warmer than any corresponding month in history, while the July to December periods ranked as the second warmest for their time. July 22, 2024, saw the highest daily global average temperature ever recorded at 17.16 °C.

“The first half of the year was warm, with a 13-month record-breaking temperature streak,” noted Florence Rabier, ECMWF’s Director-General. “This persistence of high temperatures made it evident by late summer that 2024 would surpass 2023 as the hottest year on record.”

High sea surface temperatures (SSTs) contributed to the extreme heat. In 2024, the annual average SST over the extra-polar ocean hit a record high of 20.87°C, which was 0.51°C above the 1991-2020 average.

“The 2023 El Niño event significantly influenced global temperatures in early 2024,” explained Samantha Burgess. “Even as El Niño transitioned to neutral conditions, ocean temperatures remained unusually high.”

The North Atlantic, Indian, and western Pacific Oceans saw record warmth, exacerbating weather extremes like storms, flooding, and heatwaves. High SSTs fuelled major storms, including tropical cyclones, amplifying their intensity and destructiveness.

Europe had its warmest year on record, with an average temperature of 10.69°C, 1.47°C above the 1991-2020 reference period. Spring and summer were extreme, with temperatures exceeding seasonal averages by 1.50°C and 1.54°C, respectively.

“The European climate anomalies in 2024 reflect broader global trends,” said Mauro Facchini, Head of Earth Observation at the European Commission. “These results demand informed decision-making to mitigate and adapt to climate change.”

Impact on ice and water vapour

Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents reached record or near-record lows in 2024. From June to October, Antarctic sea ice ranked second lowest on record, while November’s extent was the lowest ever. Meanwhile, Arctic sea ice fell well below average in the second half of the year.

Atmospheric water vapour levels hit an all-time high in 2024, about 5% above the 1991-2020 average, contributing to heightened heat stress and severe weather. On July 10, 2024, about 44% of the globe experienced at least “strong heat stress,” a new record.

“Extreme temperatures and high humidity can amplify heat stress,” Burgess noted. “In 2024, many regions saw unprecedented days with ‘extreme heat stress,’ putting millions at risk.”

Greenhouse gas concentrations rose in 2024, with carbon dioxide at 422 parts per million (ppm) and methane at 1897 parts per billion (ppb). Laurence Rouil, Director of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, warned, “This steady increase in greenhouse gas emissions remains the main driver of climate change. In 2024, CO2 concentrations were 2.9 ppm higher than in 2023, while methane rose by 3 ppb.”

The 2024 findings have prompted urgent global action. “The Global Climate Highlights report is vital for international climate adaptation,” said Florence Rabier. “For 50 years, ECMWF’s leadership in meteorology has ensured global preparedness for weather-related challenges.”

Scientists communicate that humanity has a limited window of opportunity to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change, as alarming trends emerge in climate indicators. “The EU’s environmental and climate targets are ambitious and require decisive actions,” said Mauro Facchini. “With science, innovation, and Earth observation programs like Copernicus, we can make informed decisions to combat climate change.”

Carlo Buontempo echoed this sentiment, stating, “Swift and decisive action can still alter the trajectory of our future climate. The choice is ours.”

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