Rising Heat Could Shrink Global Food Supply, Even with Adaptation: Study

As the planet warms, your daily food intake could shrink, even if farmers do everything they can to adapt. A new study published in Nature warns that every 1°C increase in global temperature may cut 120 calories from the average person’s daily diet. That’s about 4.4 percent of current consumption.

“Even with adaptation, the damage from rising temperatures is substantial,” said Hannah Hess, a researcher with the Climate Impact Lab and one of the study’s co-authors. “This isn’t just a problem for tomorrow, the effects are already underway.”

Heat Cuts Food, Despite Adaptation

The researchers looked at six staple crops: rice, wheat, maize, soybean, sorghum and cassava. These account for two-thirds of global calorie production. By 2100, under a high-emissions scenario, global yields from these crops could fall by nearly 30 percent on average.

The study modelled how climate change would affect these crops in over 24,000 local regions across 54 countries. It found that wealthier countries may face even steeper losses—up to 41 percent, as they currently grow food in some of the world’s most productive areas.

Wheat may suffer the most. Under high emissions, yields could drop by 40 to 100 percent in parts of northern and central India. Other wheat-heavy nations like the U.S., Canada, Russia, and China could also see losses between 30 and 40 percent.

“Wheat is sensitive to both high daytime and nighttime temperatures,” said Hess. “That makes it especially vulnerable in a warming world.”

Northern India stands out as one of the most at-risk regions. Despite already high temperatures, it is projected to see some of the most severe crop declines. Meanwhile, rice is the only crop that might see gains in some areas, due to its ability to handle hot nights, but that benefit isn't guaranteed globally.

Adaptation measures, such as changing crop varieties, improving irrigation, or shifting planting dates, help. But not by enough.

Adaptation Helps Little, Risks Grow

The study found that such changes will only offset about one-third of the expected losses by the end of the century, even under aggressive development. For wheat, the gains from adaptation are weakest. In fact, adaptation could backfire in some regions.

“As countries grow richer, they sometimes take on more risk, assuming they can manage it,” said Michael Greenstone, another co-author and a professor at the University of Chicago. “In the case of wheat, that risk doesn’t always pay off.”

Cassava, a lifeline for many in low-income countries, is also at risk. The study projects average losses of 40 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa, a region where cassava is a key calorie source.

The damage will not fall evenly. Richer regions and the poorest countries will feel the sharpest effects. Middle-income areas may be less exposed, but not immune.

Heat Threatens Food for Everyone

The study points out that tropical countries with high rainfall may fare slightly better, as their crops already endure hot conditions. But most of the world lies in the middle, not hot enough to withstand further warming, and not cold enough to benefit from it.

By the end of the century, without drastic emissions cuts, the world could lose 17.6 percent of daily calorie availability, based on a 4°C rise. That’s nearly one-fifth of today’s average intake.

“If we care about food security, we need to care about climate change,” said Hess. “Adaptation can help, but it’s not a solution on its own.”

The report sends a clear message. As warming accelerates, food systems everywhere will be stressed. Rich or poor, no region is safe from the heat.

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