Fragile climate deal reached at COP29 amid global tensions

Amid extreme weather and geopolitical strife, world leaders struck a fragile climate deal at the 29th UN Climate Conference (COP29). Despite being dubbed the "Finance COP," the event revealed divisions between wealthy and developing nations grappling over responsibility, funding, and the pace of climate action. The deal, reached on the final day, is described as both a milestone and a missed opportunity.

With 2024 the hottest year on record and over half a million climate-linked disaster deaths in the last two decades, the stakes were high. Yet, global conflict, economic instability, and geopolitical mistrust loomed. Saudi Arabia, representing fossil fuel-reliant economies, sought to weaken mitigation goals, while wealthy nations, including the United States and Japan, faced criticism for inadequate financial commitments to vulnerable countries.

“This was a hard-fought two weeks amid challenging geopolitics resulting in a step change for financial reforms,” said Linda Kalcher, Executive Director of Strategic Perspectives. “Public finance from more contributors, especially multilateral development banks, and new finance will unlock $1.3 trillion by 2035.”

Key agreements and challenges

The deal set a $1.3 trillion climate finance goal by 2035, with an annual $300 billion "downpayment" from wealthy nations. This commitment includes voluntary contributions from emerging economies under "South-South cooperation."

Other key provisions include:

• Adaptation Financing: Tripling funding for adaptation in vulnerable regions, including Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS).

• Grants and Loans: Emphasis on public and grant-based finance, though critics note the lack of guarantees on concessional funding.

• Baku-to-Belém Roadmap: A mechanism for stocktaking progress in 2026 and 2027, with periodic reviews before COP30 in Brazil.

• Loss and Damage: Acknowledgment of significant gaps in loss-and-damage financing, with plans for more discussions.

Aarti Khosla, Director of Climate Trends, offered a sobering perspective: “The $300 billion remains uncertain, but setting aside funds for least developed countries is slight progress. The devil is in the details.”

Saudi Arabia and other oil-exporting nations thwarted efforts to reach a stronger agreement on phasing out fossil fuels. Negotiations on mitigation texts were stalled, pushing decisions to COP30. “We have seen the worst of political opportunism here at this COP, playing games with the lives of the world’s most vulnerable people,” said Tina Stege, Climate Envoy for the Marshall Islands.

The UAE Consensus from COP28 held firm, maintaining commitments to energy transition and emissions reduction. Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, reflected on the challenges: “No country got everything they wanted, and we leave Baku with a mountain of work still to do. Still, we’ve shown the UN Paris Agreement is delivering.”

COP29 approves carbon trading rules

One of COP29's breakthroughs was adopting Article 6.2, finalizing rules for government-to-government carbon trading after years of deadlock. However, concerns remain about transparency and enforcement. “This risks becoming a free-for-all,” warned Carbon Market Watch, cautioning against inadequate safeguards in the agreement.

India raised strong objections to the final document, criticizing its lack of ambition. “I regret to say this document is nothing more than an optical illusion,” said Chandni Raina, Adviser to India’s Department of Economic Affairs. “This will not address the enormity of the challenge we all face.”

Nevertheless, developing nations like Kenya and Colombia played pivotal roles in forging coalitions that ensured some progress. Kalcher praised their leadership, noting, “A new leadership group has emerged that helped broker this deal.”

Despite political gridlock, the clean energy transition accelerates:

• Global investment in clean energy now surpasses fossil fuel spending, with solar PV leading.

• China increased its clean energy investments by 40% in 2023.

• The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts fossil fuel demand will peak by 2030 due to cost-competitive renewables.

“This deal will sustain the clean energy boom and protect billions of lives,” Stiell added. “It will help all countries share the benefits of bold climate action: more jobs, stronger growth, cheaper and cleaner energy.”

Looking ahead to COP30 in Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, host of COP30, is positioning the summit as the “turnaround COP.” The pressure is mounting for national climate plans due by February to reflect the global stocktake and outline pathways for phasing out coal, oil, and gas.

Dipak Dasgupta, Distinguished Fellow at TERI, said the $300 billion agreement is welcome if it’s primarily grant-based and helps vulnerable countries become more resilient. “The wick of hope remains, even if flickering.”

As countries prepare for COP30, can the momentum from Baku overcome fossil fuel resistance and secure the transformative change needed to combat the climate crisis? For now, the Baku deal stands as a testament to the power—and fragility—of multilateralism in a divided world.

Support us to keep independent environmental journalism alive in India.

Keep Reading

Watch: Kashmir experiences first snowfall of season after dry spell

Amarnath Yatra: Tackling rising death toll from extreme weather events

Tourists arrival in Kashmir break records, a need to regulate it?

From tourist paradise to waste wasteland: Sindh River Cry for help

Follow Ground Report on X, Instagram and Facebook for environmental and underreported stories from the margins. Give us feedback on our email id [email protected]. 

Don't forget to Subscribe to our weekly newsletter, Join our community on WhatsApp, and Follow our YouTube Channel for video stories.