Late monsoon withdrawal in India: reasons and outlook

On September 22, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated that the southwest monsoon is likely to begin retreating from northwest India around September 25. Typically, the southwest monsoon starts over Kerala by June 1 and covers the entire country by July 8. It usually begins retreating from northwest India around September 17 and withdraws completely by October 15.

Delayed monsoon withdrawal for 13 years

The Meteorological Department (IMD) indicated on 21 September that the withdrawal of monsoon may begin by the end of the withdrawal forecast period (21 to 27 September), marking the 13th consecutive year of delayed monsoon withdrawal.

The country may receive less than normal rainfall (90 to 95 percent) as far as the rainfall situation during the monsoon period is concerned until September 30, 2023, according to estimates. The normal i.e. long term average during the monsoon season (June to September) is 868.8 mm.

So far, India has received 780.3 mm of rain during this monsoon season, compared to a normal of 832.4 mm. We consider rainfall between 94 per cent and 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) as normal.

In an interview with Reuters, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, IMD DG, stated, "We can see new circulations and low-pressure areas over many parts of the country, indicating that there are no symptoms of monsoon withdrawal at this stage. The monsoon is going to be delayed." Currently, the absence of telltale signs across the country reveals an imminent retreat.

Nation faces 7% rainfall deficit

As of September 21, the IMD data indicates an overall rainfall deficit of 7 per cent in the country, while 36 per cent of the districts are experiencing either deficient rainfall (20 per cent to 59 per cent less rainfall than normal) or severely deficient rainfall (more than 59 per cent less than normal).

Normally, the country receives an average of 870 mm of precipitation during the four-month monsoon season (June to September). In a pre-monsoon briefing, the IMD had predicted a normal monsoon for India, albeit on the lower side of normal. It had, however, cautioned that El Nino — warming of waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America — might influence the latter half of the southwest monsoon.

El Nino conditions are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India. India experienced a rainfall deficit in June but saw excessive precipitation in July due to consecutive western disturbances over northwest India and a favorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), known for increasing convection in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.

MJO is a large-scale atmospheric disturbance originating in tropical Africa and traveling eastward, typically lasting 30 to 60 days. August 2023 marked the driest month since 1901 and the hottest ever recorded in India, attributed to the strengthening of El Nino conditions. However, September brought an excess of rain due to multiple low-pressure systems and the positive phase of MJO.

The ongoing rains, along with the news of impending rainfall this month, provide a welcome relief for farmers, especially considering the driest August in over a century and its adverse impact on the summer crops. The anticipated rains will play a crucial role for various crops, including rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, sugarcane, and peanuts.

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