Lack of monsoon boosts rural MNREGA work demand

India has witnessed a significant drop in monsoon rainfall, leading to adverse consequences for agriculture and an unprecedented increase in demand for jobs under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MNREGA).

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), monsoon rains have decreased by up to 40 per cent until the second week of September.

As per the of Down to Earth, insufficient rainfall has aggravated problems for farmers across the country. With the critical monsoon months of June, July, and August delivering far less rain than usual, crop yields have been severely affected. Farmers, already grappling with challenges, are facing heightened difficulties in sustaining their livelihoods.

Simultaneously, the demand for work under MNREGA has skyrocketed. This surge in demand has even surpassed levels seen during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in some states. Data available on the MNREGA website indicates a substantial increase in job requests compared to the pre-pandemic period.

• June 2023 saw a 32.6 percent increase in job demand.
• July 2023 witnessed a rise of 28 percent in job seekers.
• August 2023 recorded a 31.12 percent surge in those seeking employment.

Chakradhar Buddha, a researcher associated with Libtech India, highlighted that the program in 2022-2 excluded over five crore MNREGA job card holders, making this year's job demand exceptionally high.3. Libtech India, a platform of social workers and experts dedicated to improving public services, advocates for addressing the pressing issue of employment demand.

Poor monsoons and job demand connection

Chakradhar Buddha stated, "Typically, the scheme generates about 85 percent of the jobs in Telangana in the four months preceding the monsoon, while the remaining eight months account for the rest of the demand for work." However, this year has witnessed a disruption in this pattern. In Telangana's Annamayya district, despite a 36.3 percent decline in rainfall, job demand increased by 26 percent in August compared to the previous year. Similarly, in Satya Sai district, where rainfall decreased by 29.4 percent, job demand surged by a remarkable 64 percent.

Lavanya Tamang, a senior researcher at Libtech in Jharkhand, highlighted the serious agricultural challenges emerging in Eastern India. She explained that traditional rural employment sources have vanished, making MNREGA a vital safety net for the rural population. Government figures also reflect the program's crucial role. Insufficient rainfall and delayed paddy sowing have compounded the crisis. An analysis by Down to Earth revealed that states experiencing rainfall deficits this year have witnessed a surge in job demand, sometimes surpassing levels seen during the pandemic's peak in 2020 and 2021.

MNREGA job demand linked to lower rainfall

In Telangana, the need for work under MNREGA has risen significantly compared to the pandemic years of 2020-21. July 2023saw over 610,494 households sought employment, and in August 2023, 343,733 households applied for jobs. In contrast, during the same months in 2020-21, only 376,537 and 130,346 households had requested work, respectively.

Kerala has also experienced a surge in job demand, with a 43 percent drop in monsoon rainfall this season. In July 2023, 951,095 individuals requested work, while in August 2023, the figure stood at 920,145. In 2020-21, the numbers were 853,732 in July and 757,580 in August.

Jharkhand witnessed a 33 percent decline in rainfall and an increase in job demand. In August 2020-21, 742,007 households sought jobs, while in the same period in 2023-24, the demand rose to 855,231.

Similarly, Maharashtra experienced a significant increase in the number of families requesting work. In July and August of 2020-21, 341,267 and 237,468 families applied for jobs, respectively. In July and August 2023, these numbers soared to 636,746 and 460,402, marking an 86.6 percent increase in July and a 93.9 percent increase in August.

The demand for MNREGA employment in the first nine days of September this year reached a peak of 172,330, surpassing the entire year's demand during the pandemic in 2020-21, which was 261,322. More families in states like Assam and Gujarat have requested work under MNREGA this year, observing a similar trend.

A comprehensive analysis of several states, including Bihar, Jharkhand, Tripura, Kerala, Odisha, Assam, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh, reveals an increase in job demand per household compared to pre-pandemic levels. For instance, in Uttar Pradesh, 2,825,123 households requested jobs in July and 2,047,988 households in August during 2023-24, whereas in 2019-20, these numbers were 1,897,137 and 1,721,878, respectively.

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