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Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) face a range of natural hazards, with earthquakes and floods posing the most significant threat, according to a report from the National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM). The region's unique geographical and climatic conditions make it susceptible to various natural disasters, particularly earthquakes and floods, which have historical precedents.
According to the NIDM report, a copy of which also lies with the Ground Report, all low-lying areas of the Kashmir valley along Parts of the Jammu region are prone to floods, while the upper catchments of all the tributaries of the Jhelum, Indus, Chenab, and Tawi rivers are prone to flash floods.
In the Kashmir valley, floods have been a recurrent problem, mainly due to the overflowing of embankments, breaching of channels, horizontal erosion, and flash floods in the river Jhelum and its tributaries. The encroachment of river water channels and siltation in water bodies due to erosion has further aggravated the vulnerability of flood hazards in the valley, states the report.
The report states that Jammu and Kashmir have had a long history of flooding due to their geographical structure and location, saying that the floods in the Kashmir valley are linked to the Jhelum River and that the frequency of floods has been very high since the formation of the valley.
From the last 10 decades, during the 20th and 21st centuries, the intensity of floods in the erstwhile state has been more recurrent and devastating. The recent floods were in 2010 in Ladakh and 2014 in Kashmir”, states the NIDM report.
As per the report, on August 6, 2010, the Ladakh region experienced one of its worst natural disasters in the form of a flash flood, which was mainly caused by cloudbursts.
The report states that the downpour only lasted for half an hour but the devastation caused was enormous. About 248 people were reported dead and 76 were missing. Around 1200 houses and 1400 hectares of agricultural land were damaged. Choglamsar, a new settlement was severely affected in terms of life and property
Floods
In a chronology of Flood events in Kashmir valley, the report states that between the years 1570-1579, the whole valley had got inundated which led submerging of all agricultural fields. Landslide, Hundreds of houses were damaged, and Famine continued for three years.
During 1678-1686, continuous rain for one month caused devastating floods. The flood was known as ‘ Tughyan-i-behad’ meaning flood without borders.
The flood event series in the report for Kashmir Valley states that in the year 1841, Jhelum overflowed its bank due to incessant rain. A breach in the Qazizad bund and the floodwater entered Srinagar. Rainawari and Khanyar areas experienced the maximum damage. All the bridges from Fatehkadal to Sumbal were washed away.
In the year 1903, the “greatest flood ever known”, came down the Valley and inundated Srinagar, converting the city into “ a whole lake”, while in 1950 another flood hit the valley, which claimed nearly 100 human lives. The flood was caused by the Jhelum’s overflow.
In 1957, the floods almost submerged the entire Kashmir valley, while in 1959 the report mentions that a massive “glacial” flood, perhaps the worst ever at the time when four days of incessant rains lashed the valley and Srinagar, triggered floods in the Jhelum.
The report states that in 1992, the flood was unprecedented in terms of its fury. It was recorded as the heaviest rainfall since 1959. Over 200 people lost their lives and the floods left over 60,000 people marooned in several northwestern border districts.
Earthquakes
According to the NIDM report, the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir is the westernmost extension of the Himalayan Mountain Range in India. The Himalayan Mountain Ranges are the youngest and tallest mountain range, which is still growing due to the ongoing movements of the tectonic plates, hence uplifting along active faults, making it very vulnerable to earthquakes.
The report states that about 15.3% of the area of the erstwhile state falls under Seismic Zone V, which is mostly considered as a very high damage risk zone. Some parts of the Kashmir and Jammu divisions fall under this zone which too poses a serious risk, as 50% of the total population lies in this part. The rest of the area falls under seismic zone IV, which is considered a high-damage risk zone.
According to the report, the earliest recorded history of earthquakes in the region dates back to around 1505 AD. The earthquakes of 1555 and 1885 were considered the most devastating ones.
The earthquake of 1555 was a catastrophic one but there was no data available to assign its magnitude or location. The 1885 earthquake which occurred near Srinagar killed around 3000 people and affected an area of 1,00,000 sq.km”, states the report.
Notably, the report mentions the 2005 Kashmir earthquake as the major one with a magnitude of 7.6 being recorded at a depth of 26 km from the surface. The epicenter was located at 34.493°N, 73.629°E, 19 km northeast of Muzaffarabad, the capital town of the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK), and 170 km west-northwest of Srinagar, Jammu & Kashmir, India (USGS). The earthquake left over 75,000 people dead and 3.5 million homeless, just before winter.
According to the report, in a region of major seismic activity—Jammu and Kashmir, some of the largest earthquakes in India have occurred in this zone, as the report has mentioned a series of years that have recorded earthquakes, that occurred in Kashmir, and their extent of damage.
In 1735, a severe earthquake occurred and threw down thousands of houses, and its shocks continued for three months. Buildings of the city and hamlets were razed to the ground, and in 1778 countless houses were razed to the ground. The shocks continued for one year, during which the people lived out of their houses.
According to the 2023 NIDM report, in 1828, the earthquake shook down some 1,200 houses, and perhaps 1,000 people were buried to death underneath them. Just before sunrise, another shock occurred accompanied by a terrific and lengthened explosion, and 20 similar shocks followed in the course of the day.
In 1905, a magnitude of around 7.8 was recorded. At least 20,000 people and 53,000 domestic animals were killed. As many as 100,000 buildings were reported to be damaged. There was also major damage to the network of hillside aqueducts that fed water to the affected area. The total estimated damage was to the tune of INR 2.9 million (1905 Rupees).
Giving reference to the 2005 earthquakes, the report states that the earthquake with a magnitude of 7.6 took place at 8:50 a.m. The epicenter of the earthquake was 34.493° North and 73.629° East, some 10 kilometres northeast of Muzaffarabad, and very close to the Asian tectonic plates. Earthquake-triggered landslides destroyed many houses on hillsides and blocked the roads. In terms of death toll, this was the most fatal earthquake in the recorded history of the Himalayas, the death toll was estimated at around 80,000.
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