India Monsoon: July is wettest month in last 29 years

In July, India experienced rainfall approximately 15% above the normal levels, significantly mitigating the countrywide rainfall deficit. The monsoon season witnessed a remarkable recovery from a 10% deficit in late June to an impressive 6% above the long-term average by the end of July.

This year's July is on track to become the wettest in the last 29 years in India, with the record for the highest ever pan India rainfall in a single month being held by 1988, with 374 mm. As of 30th July, the country as a whole has received a total of 312.2 mm of rainfall, surpassing the climatology average of 271.9 mm, resulting in a departure from normal at +15%.

Monsoon wreaks havoc in Telangana

However, this extended wet period had its share of problems. Telangana bore the brunt of the monsoon's fury, recording the heaviest 24-hour rain in India this year. As of Friday, the death toll in Telangana has reached 23, with 14 more bodies discovered in floodwaters in Mulugu district.

Observatory/Rainfall

• Laxmidevipeta: 649.8 mm
• Chityal: 616.5 mm
• Chelpur: 475.8 mm
• Regonda: 467.0 mm
• Mogullapally: 394.0 mm
• Karkagudem: 390.5 mm

Meteorologists and climate scientists have attributed these extreme weather events, including incessant rains in Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, parts of Punjab and Chandigarh, to the increasing impact of global warming. The combination of various weather events influenced by climate change has intensified rainfall patterns across the country.

Observatory/Rainfall

• Sri Dungargarh: 208 mm
• Ghantiyali: 134 mm
• Ora Tank: 129 mm
• Aau: 96 mm
• Shahpura: 95 mm
• Bassi: 85 mm
• Rawla: 77 mm

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts a change in monsoon intensity, entering a weaker phase around August 6-7. The reduction in rainfall activity is already evident in southern and many parts of central India, causing daily rainfall figures across the country to fall below normal in recent days.

Despite concerns about a strengthening El Niño affecting rainfall in the second half of the season (August-September), the prolonged wave of rain has raised hopes that this year's monsoon could end within the normal range of 96% to 104% of the long-term average, as predicted by IMD.

Monsoon Rainfall Varied, August Break

As of 31st July 2023, several synoptic weather features are influencing India's weather:

• The low pressure area, initially over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Odisha – West Bengal coasts, has now shifted to the northwest Bay of Bengal and its surrounding areas. The associated cyclonic circulation extends up to 7.6 km above mean sea level, tilting southwestwards with height.
• The Monsoon Trough at mean sea level runs through various regions, including Amritsar, Chandigarh, Moradabad, Gorakhpur, Patna, Deoghar, Digha, and the center of the Low Pressure Area over northwest Bay of Bengal & its surrounding areas. From there, it extends southeastwards to the east central Bay of Bengal.
• Another trough, located between 0.9 and 3.1 km above mean sea level, runs from northwest Bihar to the cyclonic circulation associated with the low pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal and surrounding regions.
• A Western Disturbance, identified as a trough in mid-tropospheric westerlies, has its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level, approximately along Long. 73°E to the north of 30°N, persisting in the region.

Monsoon brings varied rainfall patterns

The active phase of the monsoon began on June 24, with 24 of the next 34 days experiencing above-normal daily rainfall across the country. This extended rainy period, influenced by favorable phases of an eastward-moving equatorial storm system known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, successfully removed significant rainfall deficits in southern and central India. However, the eastern and northeastern regions continue to reel under a 25% rainfall deficit.

As of July 30, North West India had an overall 33% rainfall surplus from June 1, Central India had a 14% surplus and South India had 6% rainfall per month. above normal. Nonetheless, eastern and north-eastern India were still grappling with a 25% rainfall deficit.

Fortunately, this imbalance is expected to ease as the IMD anticipates substantial rains in Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Eastern Uttar Pradesh, North Odisha and Chhattisgarh over the next five to six days.

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