How many people would die in a Russia vs USA nuclear war?

A nuclear war between the United States and Russia would cause a global famine that could kill more than 5 billion people, according to a study published Monday in the scientific journal Nature.

Russia vs USA nuclear war

"The data tells us one thing: We must prevent a nuclear war from happening," warns Alan Robock, professor in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University and co-author of the study, which has been published in the journal Nature.

Building on previous research, Robock and his colleagues worked to calculate how much sun-blocking soot would enter the atmosphere from firestorms ignited by the detonation of nuclear weapons.

The researchers calculated soot dispersion from six war scenarios (five smaller wars between India and Pakistan and one major war between the United States and Russia) based on the size of each country's nuclear arsenal.

This data was then entered into the Community Earth System Model, a climate forecasting tool supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). NCAR's Community Land Model made it possible to estimate the productivity of major crops (corn, rice, spring wheat, and soybeans) on a country-by-country basis. The researchers also examined projected changes in livestock grazing and global marine fisheries.

The worst affected would be the countries of the northern hemisphere, where the major food exporters are located, and it would have a very negative impact on the importing countries of Africa and the Middle East. The study establishes that, in that case, more than 75% of the planet would suffer from famine, and animal food could serve as food for the human population.

worst case scenarios

Even in the smallest nuclear scenario, a localized war between India and Pakistan, global average caloric output fell by 7% within five years of the conflict. In the largest war scenario ever tested, a full-scale nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia, the world's average caloric output dropped by about 90% three to four years after the fight.

Crop declines would be most severe in mid and high-latitude nations, including major exporting countries like Russia and the United States.

These changes would induce a catastrophic disruption of global food markets, the researchers conclude. Even a 7 per cent global decline in crop yields would exceed the largest anomaly ever recorded since the Food and Agriculture Organization's observational records began in 1961. Under the largest war scenario, more than 75% of the planet would be starving within two years.

Possible Solution

Robock said researchers already have more than enough information to know that a nuclear war of any size would destroy the world's food systems, killing billions of people in the process.

"If nuclear weapons exist, they can be used, and the world has come close to nuclear war several times," Robock stresses.

According to this team of scientists, banning nuclear weapons is the only long-term solution. The five-year-old UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons has been ratified by 66 nations, but none of the nine nuclear states. Our work makes it clear that it is time for those nine states to listen to science and the rest of the world and sign this treaty.”

"The ozone layer would be destroyed by the heat in the stratosphere, producing more ultraviolet radiation on the surface. We need to understand the impact of this scenario on food production", detailed the researcher.

Catastrophic market disruption

Crops in mid and high latitudes would be the most affected by this 'screen' of ash. The UK, for example, would see steeper drops in available food than a country like India, which is at lower latitudes. But France, which is a major food exporter, would do relatively well, at least in the lower emissions scenarios, because if trade were to stop, it would have more food available for its own people.

Another nation would be Australia. Cut off from trade in the wake of a nuclear war, Australia would rely primarily on wheat for food. And what grows relatively well in the colder weather induced by atmospheric soot. On the team's map showing large portions of the world coloured red, due to famine, Australia shines an unbroken green, even in the most severe theatres of war.

"The first time I showed my son the map, his first reaction was 'let's move to Australia,'" says Xia. Spain does not fare badly in the distribution either, although it would directly notice the consequences in the event of a generalized war.

However, in a globalized world, it is impossible to think that the entire world would not be affected: "These changes would induce a catastrophic disruption of global food markets," the authors write. Even a 7% global decline in crop yields would exceed the largest anomaly ever recorded since records began, dating back to 1961. "Under the largest war scenario, more than 75% of the planet would be starving," the researchers say.

The authors also considered whether feeding livestock feed or reducing food waste could offset losses. However, it was not an impact measure in the case of major nuclear conflicts. Also, farming patterns would change. For example, the ozone layer would be destroyed by the heating of the stratosphere, producing more ultraviolet radiation at the surface. “Or the effect that the death of pollinators would have. That is why we need to understand those kinds of impacts on the food supply,” says Xia.

Robock claims that this work, in which researchers from the Autonomous University of Barcelona also participated, is irrevocable proof that a nuclear war, regardless of its size, would destroy global food systems, killing billions of people in the process.

In fact, it is not the only study that warns about the risk of a nuclear conflict. An investigation published last month in the magazine ' AGU Advances pointed out that, in the event that two states with nuclear potential entered into combat -regardless of which of the nine currently possess this weapons capacity-, a hecatomb would occur: the Earth's temperatures would drop ten degrees Celsius, crops would fail around the world, sea ice would block major ports, and fishing would virtually disappear.

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