Severe Heatwave Grips Northern India, Experts Link It to Climate Change

Northern India is reeling under an intense heatwave after an unusually mild summer. Since the first week of June, temperatures have surged past 44°C across Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued red alerts for five consecutive days starting June 9.

Earlier in the season, rain and thunderstorms across the Indo-Gangetic plains kept temperatures near or below normal. Delhi recorded its wettest May ever with 186.4 mm of rainfall, surpassing the previous record of 165 mm in 2008.

But the pattern shifted quickly.

“Monsoon had advanced almost a week before its time,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President-Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather. “However, after reaching Mumbai and many parts of Northeast India, the progress stalled. Weak cyclonic circulations and continuous flow of hot and dry winds from the Thar desert have pushed heat across the Indo-Gangetic plains. These north-westerly winds are not allowing the monsoon to progress further.”

Severe heatwave hits Northern India

Climate experts point to global warming as a key factor in the changing behavior of heatwaves.

“Northwest India remains susceptible to heatwaves until the monsoon arrives,” said KJ Ramesh, former Director General of IMD. “There is no doubt that climate change has led to increased severity of heatwaves across the region. A slight increase in humidity levels adds 2-4°C, increasing discomfort. Morbidity has also risen. With every 1°C rise in warming, the air’s capacity to hold water vapor increases by 7%.”

Humidity has made the heat even more dangerous. It not only amplifies discomfort but also strains the healthcare system. Prolonged exposure to such conditions causes heat strokes, especially among outdoor workers, children, the elderly, and the poor.

Dr. Palak Balyan, Research Lead at Climate Trends LLP, said, “India is witnessing a sharp surge in heat-related hospitalizations, particularly for heat strokes. What’s especially concerning is the shift in seasonal patterns — extreme heat events now extend into the monsoon months. Urban heat islands and localized changes make it worse. We need robust heat action plans and targeted public health strategies.”

Heatwaves spreading to new regions

Research shows a clear increase in the number and spread of heatwaves over the last three decades. A study titled Shifting of the Zone of Occurrence of Extreme Weather Event—Heat Waves found that places like Arunachal Pradesh and Kerala, which were not historically known for heatwaves, have started experiencing them since the early 2000s.

It also found that:

• North India (Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand) saw a consistent rise in heatwave days every decade between 1991 and 2020.

• Central India was a hotspot during 2001–2010.

• The focus shifted to Southern India during 2011–2020.

• Heatwave events now reach hilly states like Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Ladakh.

Experts highlight shifting wind patterns and high-pressure systems as contributing factors.

“By the end of May, a strong high pressure had developed over Western Russia,” said Dr. Akshay Deoras, Research Scientist at the University of Reading. “This acted as an atmospheric blocking pattern and tweaked wind patterns over India. Hot, dry winds from Afghanistan and Pakistan suppressed cloud formation, weakened monsoon circulation, and halted the monsoon’s advance.”

Rising heat, falling wind relief

A recent study also noted a decrease in wind speeds over northern India in the pre-monsoon months, which reduces the movement of cooler air and intensifies heat. Meanwhile, stronger winds in southern India increase humidity, showing contrasting climate patterns across regions.

The increase in surface temperature and humidity has also led to more thermal discomfort days in Northwest India. This refers to the number of days when temperatures and humidity combine to create extreme discomfort and health risks.

The human cost of heatwaves is growing.

The same study documented rising mortality from heatwaves between 1991 and 2020:

• Andhra Pradesh and Odisha reported 4675 and 3269 deaths respectively in April and May during 2001–2010.

• Andhra Pradesh again saw 3182 deaths in the 2011–2020 period, including 400 in Coastal Andhra alone.

• Telangana saw 909 deaths in June, indicating a shift in timing.

• Rajasthan recorded 488 deaths in June.

• Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal reported moderate but varying death rates.

Experts say these deaths reflect more than just extreme temperatures. They expose deeper vulnerabilities in public health systems, especially for low-income populations.

The intensifying and shifting heatwave zones point to a broader climate emergency.

As Dr. Palawat explained, “The heat is being transported from the Thar desert, where temperatures are near 48°C, reaching eastern and central India. These dry winds and reduced rainfall have locked in the heat.”

The data leaves little doubt. What used to be rare events are now becoming routine. Places once considered safe from such extremes — like Kerala or Arunachal Pradesh — now face dangerous heat. 

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