Kashmir's rice fields wither amid rising temperatures & water scarcity

“We’re hitting 36°Celsius every year now during summer. This heat wave is new to Kashmir,” says Nazir Ahmed Mir, a farmer from Kangan, Ganderbal. His frustration reflects the concerns of many farmers, watching their fertile lands dry up. “This year, our paddy crops are completely damaged due to the lack of water and no rainfall,” he adds. “[There is] very little water in the fields; if this continues, our crops will turn into dry twigs in the next few days.”

The irrigation and flood control department has even advised the farmers to avoid sowing paddy, a water-intensive crop, due to falling water levels in the Union Territory (UT).

Rising temperatures impact paddy farming

A study titled "Analyses of temperature and precipitation in the Indian Jammu and Kashmir region for the 1980–2016 period" reveals a significant increase in the average annual temperature in the region over the past 37 years. The temperature has risen by 0.8°C on average, with higher-altitude areas like Pahalgam and Gulmarg experiencing increases of 1.13°C and 1.04°C. Mid-altitude areas like Kokarnag and Kupwara recorded increases of 0.9°C and 1.0°C, while lower-altitude regions like Srinagar and Qazigund saw smaller increases of 0.65°C and 0.44°C.

The study highlights significant winter and spring temperature increases, with some locations seeing winter temperatures rise by as much as 1.3°C. These changes have had a profound impact on the region, particularly on agricultural practices, including paddy cultivation, a staple crop in Kashmir. For example, in recent years, the administration has advised the farmers to refrain from cultivating paddy due to 80% less precipitation and temperatures 8-10°C above average in March and April. In 2019, an advisory in the Baramulla division warned of low snowfall and fast melting due to high temperatures, indicating potential paddy difficulties. In 2022, Kashmir’s irrigation and flood control department advised farmers to avoid planting paddy.

Thaejkaad (nursery), the traditional Kashmiri practice of paddy transplantation, holds cultural significance in Kashmir. The process starts in mid-April with Paddy soaking, followed by Nursery preparation, and transplantation from May to June. Later Harvesting occurs between September and October. This year, Kashmir experienced unusually high temperatures, reaching above 37˚C, nearly 10˚C above normal. 

A senior agriculture department official in Kashmir confirmed, “February, the coldest month in Kashmir, was the hottest last year. We advised farmers in many areas not to sow paddy.” The shift led the agriculture and irrigation departments to suggest that farmers in Uri and surrounding areas switch from paddy to maize. 

Declining paddy cultivation threatens food security

Agriculture Department Director Iqbal Ahmed Choudhry is concerned about Jammu and Kashmir's declining paddy cultivation area. The area has decreased yearly, from 1,62,309 hectares in 2012-13 to 1,34,067 hectares in 2021-22, a 17% decrease reflecting broader agriculture sector challenges.

A 2019 study found that climate change may have decreased irrigated rice, wheat, and mustard production in Jammu and Kashmir by 6%, 4%, and 4%. The food production deficit in Kashmir has reached 40%. Vegetable and oilseed production have fallen by 30% and 69%, posing a significant risk to food security.

The IPCC projects that rice yields could decrease by 7-10% for every 1-degree increase in temperature above the current average.

Limited irrigation facilities contribute to the decline in paddy cultivation. A senior Professor, an agronomist at Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology (SKUAST)-Kashmir, explains, "Farmers receive minimal or no water during crucial paddy cultivation stages [May-June], compelling them to leave the land fallow because delayed irrigation reduces rice quantity and quality."

The absence of modern agricultural tools has worsened the paddy farmers’ difficulties. Only 333 customs hiring centers (CHC are units that provide farm machinery and equipment to farmers on rental basis at subsidized rates) were established in the Union Territory by 2024. “Paddy farmers lack modern technology and mechanization,” says a senior agronomist at SKUAST-Kashmir. The absence of machinery and has led many farmers to switch to apple orchards, which require less mechanization but offer higher profits.

Urbanization erodes Kashmir's agricultural lands

Urbanization and conversion of agricultural land for non-agricultural purposes are critical factors contributing to the decline in paddy cultivation. Kashmir has experienced significant urban expansion in the last two decades, driven by migration and population growth. The urban population increased from 20% in 1980 to 30% in 2020, increasing land demand and prices, leading farmers to sell their paddy fields.

This trend is evident in areas surrounding Srinagar, where once-fertile fields and wetlands have been replaced by residential colonies. Sultan Mir, a 69-year-old farmer, recalls, “Our village was surrounded by paddy fields and wetlands. Now, it is all cement. Houses have come up everywhere, and most of the land has been sold for construction.”

Similar situations are happening in other major districts of Kashmir Valley, where paddy land is rapidly converted for commercial and residential development. This unplanned urbanization has reduced the area for paddy cultivation and the overall contribution of agriculture to the region's economy.

Water scarcity, and Kashmir's rice farming future

In Kashmir, canal irrigation is the main water source for rice cultivation. However, traditional methods like puddling have negative impacts on soil structure, forming a hard pan that restricts seed germination and root growth, making it less suitable for successive crops. 

The future of rice cultivation in Kashmir is uncertain due to climate change altering weather patterns and scarce water resources. Farmers like Nazir Ahmed Mir are left with few options. “If the situation doesn’t improve, we’ll have to leave farming forever,” he says, reflecting growing despair among farmers.

Agriculture Department Director Iqbal Ahmed Choudhry stresses the need for urgent measures to sustain rice farming in the region. “We’re seeing a decline in paddy areas but an increase in productivity. This shows that with the right interventions, we can make rice farming viable,” he told Ground Report. Choudhry calls for better seed varieties, efficient resource use, and scientific and extension interventions to close the yield gap and ensure sustainability.

The study explores the potential of direct seeding of rice (DSR) as a more water-efficient alternative. As per the study, DSR allows rice to be grown in well-drained, unpuddled soils, reducing irrigation needs. The study emphasizes nitrogen management in rice cultivation, particularly under DSR conditions, which is crucial for maximizing yield while minimizing environmental impacts like nitrogen loss and pollution.

Despite the challenges, there is hope for the future of rice cultivation in the region. Modern farming techniques, like direct seeding and precision agriculture, could mitigate the impacts of climate change and water scarcity. Government support through subsidies, infrastructure development, and access to modern agricultural equipment will be crucial for farmers to adapt.

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