What used to be hot is now cool, how El Niño & La Niña reveal a warming planet

"Climate" temperatures are based on 20-to-30-year averages, not single-year data. Even with longer-term averages, the world has warmed by around 1.3°C. But you’ll also notice that temperatures haven’t increased linearly. There are spikes and dips along the long-run trend.

Many short-term fluctuations are caused by "ENSO" — the El Niño-Southern Oscillation — a natural climate cycle caused by changes in wind patterns and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

Analysis from Our World in Data highlights that even recent La Niña years have been warmer than El Niño years from previous decades. This suggests that what were once considered "hot years" in the past are now being surpassed by relatively "cool years" in the present. This trend underscores the impact of rising greenhouse gas emissions.

In 2024, global temperatures reached an alarming milestone, averaging about 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This made it the hottest year on record, underscoring the accelerating pace of climate change. However, scientists emphasise that global temperatures do not increase in a straight line, showing fluctuations influenced by natural climate cycles, particularly ENSO.

The ENSO cycle has two key phases: El Niño, marked by warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, occurring every 2 to 7 years and lasting 9 to 12 months, leading to higher global temperatures; and La Niña, bringing cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures, resulting in temporarily lower global temperatures. Neutral periods occur between these phases. The cycle significantly influences short-term temperature variations but doesn’t alter the long-term global warming trend.

Scientists Veronika Samborska and Hannah Ritchie, in a report on Our World in Data, emphasise that the strong El Niño event of 2023-2024 significantly contributed to the record-breaking heat in 2024. While ENSO phases influence short-term temperature shifts, the overall warming trend is driven by human-induced climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions.

The impact of extreme temperatures in 2024 was evident across various climate indicators. In February 2024, global sea ice reached record-low levels. Arctic sea ice was 8% below average, while the Antarctic experienced a 26% reduction. These declines are concerning, as sea ice regulates Earth’s temperature by reflecting sunlight. January 2025 saw devastating wildfires in Los Angeles, forcing the evacuation of 180,000 residents and causing significant damage.

Adding to the climate crisis, the United States, under President Trump, withdrew from the International Partners Group (IPG), a coalition of developed nations funding green energy transitions in developing countries. This impacted South Africa, Indonesia, and Vietnam, with South Africa losing over $1 billion in U.S. investment for its energy transition projects.

In a blow to global climate efforts, Trump reaffirmed his commitment to fossil fuel expansion during his January 2025 inauguration. Declaring a national "energy emergency," he vowed to boost domestic oil and gas production, stating, "I will reverse it immediately. And we will drill, baby, drill."

While Natural climate cycles like El Niño and La Niña will continue to cause short-term fluctuations in global temperatures, but the overarching trend is clear: the planet is warming at an unprecedented rate. Without urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, record-breaking heat, extreme weather events, and environmental crises will likely become more frequent.

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