2024 Monsoon marks highest number of heavy rainfall events in 5 years

In the 2024 monsoon season, India experienced significant rainfall variations across its 729 districts, with 340 districts recording normal rainfall, 158 experiencing excess, and 48 facing large excess rainfall. Conversely, 167 districts had a rainfall deficit, including 11 that saw a large deficit, reveals a report on Monsoon 2024 by Climate Trends.

Notably, this monsoon marked the highest number of heavy rainfall events in five years, with June and July recording the second-highest instances of very heavy and extremely heavy rainfall, respectively. August set a new benchmark with 753 stations reporting very heavy rainfall, while September followed suit with 525 stations. 

Climate Change: Transforming weather patterns and their effects

The impact of climate change is evident, as monsoon systems have become more persistent, shifting their tracking patterns from Central India to more southern positions. Despite the increase in monsoon rainfall, global warming has led to a rise in minimum temperatures, with India experiencing an unprecedented night temperature anomaly of 0.61 degrees Celsius, particularly affecting Central India.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the 2024 Southwest Monsoon wrapped up with above-normal rainfall, totaling 108% of the long-term average. From June 1 to September 30, India received 934.8 mm of rain, exceeding the seasonal norm of 868.6 mm.

“India is witnessing more intense patterns of extreme events compared to previous years. Recent occurrences in Kerala, like prolonged and erratic rainfall causing landslides and abrupt city shutdowns, highlight the impact of climate change. Our analysis indicates that by 2036, 8 out of 10 Indians will be affected by extreme events, with these numbers expected to peak,” said Abhinash Mohanty, Head- Climate Change and Sustainability Practice, IPE Global.

Similar to recent trends of last few years, the 2024 monsoon was characterized by extreme weather events, achieving the highest number of heavy rainfall occurrences in the past five years. We earlier talked to Praveen Suresh, Manager of disaster response and relief at Humane Society International/India, describes the devastating impact of the landslide in Wayanad, which covered eight kilometers of land and destroyed a bridge, making rescue efforts challenging.

Changing weather patterns

Recent years have seen a notable increase in annual variability in monsoon performance, with scientists linking the rise in extreme weather events, including heightened monsoon fluctuations, to global warming. A recent study reveals that India now endures prolonged summer-like conditions during the June to September period. 

These shifting weather patterns are establishing a new normal characterized by more intense, erratic, and persistent monsoons, resulting in drier dry years and wetter wet years. Approximately 70% of districts are now experiencing this persistent and unpredictable rainfall with greater frequency. 

The continuous rise in temperatures has fundamentally altered monsoon patterns over the years, and these changes have become increasingly apparent with each passing monsoon season in the last decade.

“The general link with climate change is that when conditions are favourable for rain, the chance of getting intense rain would be more than it was several years before. As the planet warms, the monsoon would get more and more variable. Longer dry spells and periods of more intense rainfall. Huge variation was seen in the rainfall among different districts,” added Dr Akshay Deoras, Research Scientist, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, U.K.

Factors affecting variability of monsoon

The Climate trends report highlights deforestation has had a significant effect on monsoon rainfall by disrupting evapotranspiration (ET) and exacerbating drought conditions. Modeling studies suggest that deforestation in global monsoon regions could lead to an 18% reduction in precipitation in India.

Rapid population growth and groundwater depletion have heightened vulnerability to changing land use patterns. Regional modeling indicates that irrigation practices, especially for paddy cultivation in northern India, play a crucial role in influencing the intraseasonal characteristics of monsoon rainfall. Additionally, poorly managed irrigation facilities have been associated with an increase in late-season terrestrial monsoon rainfall.

The unprecedented growth of urbanization over the past three decades has transformed precipitation patterns in India. A study revealed notable impacts of urbanization particularly in the central and western regions of the country.

Recently, Ground Report has also reported how the untimely rainfall had impacted the farmers with crop losses in the Chhatarpur district of Madhya Pradesh.

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