Only four G20 countries set for positive ecological footprint by 2050

New research from the University of Sheffield suggests that by 2050, the UK and 15 other G20 nations are projected to have a negative ecological footprint. Led by Professor Lenny Koh from Sheffield’s Energy Institute and published in Nature Scientific Reports, the study indicates that only Argentina, Brazil, Canada, and Russia are anticipated to maintain a positive impact on the environment by 2050, aligning to achieve net zero emissions.

Research forecasts G20 nations' ecological footprint

The research, a pioneering effort, breaks new ground by providing the first comprehensive forecast of the ecological footprint of all G20 nations for the upcoming three decades. It emphasizes the critical necessity for economic and industrial practices that not only promote growth but also preserve our planet's essential resources, safeguard ecosystems, and prevent the extinction of wildlife. 

Moreover, the study introduces an innovative approach to predicting ecological impacts, leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance forecasting accuracy. By combining established forecasting models like ARIMA, Auto-ARIMA, and Prophet, which are widely utilized for analyzing historical data, with AI-based techniques, the research aims to provide more precise insights into future trends. 

The analysis employed crucial data points for each G20 nation, including consumption per capita, biocapacity per capita, area per capita, GDP per capita, electricity use per capita, emissions per capita, and fossil fuel consumption per capita. These variables provided insights into the ecological footprint patterns and trends of each country, aiding in understanding their environmental impact.

Researchers believe that this method, which combines the three models with the new AI, holds promise in assessing the potential effects of policy measures on the environment.

Findings indicate that Brazil is projected to boast the most positive ecological footprint per capita among all G20 nations by 2050. This is attributed to the country's comparatively less intensive utilization of resources compared to its counterparts.

Despite a negative forecasted footprint, the UK is expected to lead in carbon emission reduction within the G20, owing to its stringent climate change policies.

G20 predicts environmental impact for next decades

Professor Lenny Koh, Chair in Operations Management at the University of Sheffield, said, “The G20 represents some of the world’s largest economies, so predicting what impact each of these will have on the environment over the next 30 years is key to helping us understand what the future of our planet might look like. It is also key to helping us understand what changes can be made now to have a more positive impact on the environment over the coming years.

“The implications of these findings are profound for both policy and global sustainability efforts. There is a pressing requirement for robust environmental policies that effectively address the unique challenges faced by different countries. Additionally, enhancing international cooperation and support for developing nations is crucial to bolster global efforts in reducing ecological footprints and promoting sustainable development.”

The researchers advocate for an inclusive approach to environmental policy-making, emphasizing the integration of economic, technological, and social strategies to pave the way for a sustainable future. They propose a transition towards renewable energy sources like solar and wind power, noting their lower environmental impact and increasing cost-effectiveness.

Additionally, they stress the necessity for G20 nations to prioritize investments in green infrastructure and technologies to mitigate the ecological consequences of urbanization and industrialization.

Education and public awareness campaigns on sustainability emerge as crucial aspects, according to the researchers. They propose that governments implement educational initiatives aimed at enhancing understanding of ecological impacts and promoting the benefits of sustainable living. By fostering awareness and knowledge, these programs could inspire individuals and communities to embrace more sustainable lifestyles, thereby reducing their ecological footprint.

Professor Lenny Koh added, "This study provides a critical forecast that should guide future research, policy-making, and practical applications in environmental sustainability. G20 nations must collaborate to address these challenges, focusing on minimizing resource scarcity and enhancing ecological resilience."