Ground Report | New Delhi: Climate change global tension; India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan are included in this list of 11 countries. This list is of such countries which can be very badly affected by climate change. According to US agencies, these countries are not prepared to face the natural and social disasters caused by climate change.
The latest report ‘National Intelligence Estimate’ by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) predicts that geopolitical tensions will increase by 2040 due to global warming, which will also have an impact on US security.
These predictions have been made by various US spy agencies. In the report released on Thursday, special concern has been expressed about 11 countries. These include Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan, besides Myanmar, Iraq, North Korea, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Colombia. Part of this ODNI report has been made public.
Climate change global tension
The report says that the situation in Afghanistan is very worrying due to heat, drought, water scarcity, and ineffective government. Controversies may arise due to water scarcity in India and the rest of South Asia.
This tension can turn into a serious dispute between these countries. As in South Asia, Pakistan depends on rivers originating from India for its groundwater. Both the nuclear-rich countries have fought many wars since their independence in 1947.
On the other side of India, about 10 percent of Bangladesh’s total population of 160 million already live in such coastal areas which are most at risk of rising sea level.
The Arctic is likely to be one, as it becomes more accessible as the ice recedes. This could open up new shipping routes and access to fish stocks, but also pose the risk of miscalculations as armies advance.
Access to water will also become a problem. In the Middle East and North Africa, about 60% of surface water resources cross borders. There is a water problem between Pakistan and India for a long time. Meanwhile, the Mekong River basin could cause problems between China and Cambodia, and Vietnam, the report warned.
Another source of risk is that a country may decide to use geoengineering to combat climate change. This involves using futuristic technology, for example sending reflective particles into the upper stratosphere that mimic the cooling effects of volcanic eruptions or using aerosols to cool the oceans in a particular region.
But if one country acts alone it can transfer the problem to another area and cause anger from other nations, negatively affected or unable to act on their own.
Researchers in many countries, including Australia, China, India, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as several EU members, are looking into these techniques but have few rules or regulations.
The possibility of new disputes emerging
According to the report, American agencies are concerned about two more areas. The report has expressed particular concern about “Central Africa and the small islands of the Pacific Ocean” due to climate change and said that they are included in the world’s two most threatened areas.
It has been said in this report that there is a huge difference in the strategies being adopted to fight climate change. The report says that countries that rely on exporting fossil fuels for their economies “will continue to resist moving towards a zero-carbon world because they fear the economic, political or geopolitical cost of doing so.”
The growing strategic crisis between the Arctic and non-Arctic countries has also been projected as a threat. The report says that the rivalry between the two sides will “definitely increase as access will become easier as temperatures rise and snowfalls.”
According to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees, an average of 25 million people around the world are displaced every year due to storms, seasonal rains, and sudden natural disasters. “Policies and plans made today and in the years to come will affect the estimates of people being displaced due to factors such as climate change,” the report says.
US spy agencies conclude that it is probably already too late to keep our planet within the temperature limits set by the Paris Agreement. Although the official target of both the US and the United Nations is the same 1.5 °C, many scientists are warning that the temperature will rise higher than this and bring huge destruction.