A closer look at Shivpuri assembly seat, a stronghold of Scindia dynasty

Shivpuri Assembly 2023 | Recently, two prominent leaders from Congress, who have notably influenced the politics of Madhya Pradesh with their internal conflicts, confronted each other. A video that recently went viral shows the Madhya Pradesh Congress President, Kamal Nath, inciting disgruntled workers to dishevel the attire of Digvijay Singh and Jaivardhan Singh. However, when these two leaders later crossed paths while issuing a promissory note, their discourse playfully devolved into jests. Notably, this uproar erupted over the contentious Shivpuri assembly seat.

Why is Shivpuri's assembly seat important?

The Shivpuri region is widely regarded as the bastion of the Scindia family. Serving as the current Sports Minister, Yashodhara Raje Scindia represents this area as the incumbent MLA. Nevertheless, she recently made an announcement stating her decision not to partake in the forthcoming elections. Consequently, the BJP might likely propose Jyotiraditya Scindia as the candidate for this crucial seat. In the 2018 assembly elections, Yashodhara established a strong victory, securing a lead of 28,748 votes over Congress candidate Siddharth Ladha.

What is the history of this seat?

Following the establishment of Madhya Pradesh, the assembly election slot in 1957 was reserved for Scheduled Castes. The Congress Party claimed victory in this particular election. Subsequently, this seat has hosted 14 further elections. Prior to 1998, the seat oscillated between Congress, Janata Dal, and Jan Sangh. However, with the advent of Yashodhara Raje Scindia in 1998, the political balance tipped significantly.

Following 1998, the BJP received control of this seat, subsequently leading to Yashodhara ascending as an MLA. However, the stronghold of this seat eventually became established within the Scindia family, rather than the BJP. After completing two consecutive terms as an MLA, Yashodhara moved to Parliament in 2007 by contesting the by-election from the Shivpuri Lok Sabha seat. Nonetheless, during the subsequent by-elections, the seat shifted in favour of the Congress. In 2008, Makhanlal Rathore of the BJP reclaimed the assembly seat. Yashodhara made her return to state politics during the 2013 assembly elections, and since then, she has continuously held the role of MLA for this seat.

What is the current condition of Shivpuri?

In its initial nominee list, Congress has selected KP Singh, a six-time MLA from Pichhor in Shivpuri, for the ticket. This decision disappointed Virendra Raghuvanshi, a BJP defector who had hopes of representing this assembly seat on behalf of Congress. His supporters expressed their discontent by appealing to Kamal Nath, sparking a heated political controversy. Currently, Raghuvanshi is the MLA from Kolaras, while Singh, a prominent leader within Congress and former minister, has been an MLA six times over. Should the rumored candidacy of Jyotiraditya Scindia turn out to be true, the party would likely pit strong contestant KP Singh against him, further solidifying Congress's stake in the elections.

What are the winning equations?

The Shivpuri assembly seat is home to a substantial voter base of 2,22,539. The majority of these voters, about 50,000, belong to the Vaishya community. Tribal voters occupy the second highest demographic with 40,000 members, followed by Brahmins at 20,000. Notably, it is the palace–Scindia dynasty–that traditionally wields a significant influence on the electoral outcomes in this region.

Should Jyotiraditya Scindia enter the election race, KP Singh's campaign may face significant obstacles. Singh's primary challenge potentially lies within the expansive urban voter demographic of the assembly seat. And, convincing this section of the electorate to lend their support to him could be testing. Moreover, there is a prevailing anti-incumbency sentiment owing to the perceived lack of progress that could serve as a defining factor in the assembly election.

Water will be an important issue

The water scarcity in Shivpuri is expected to escalate into a major problem. Even though Shivpuri is a bastion of the Scindia family, they have made no considerable strides towards resolving this issue. The Shivraj administration had suggested filling the void in water resources by channelling the water from Sindh to the region. However, despite an investment of Rs 140 crore in the Sindh Water Project, the local inhabitants are still grappling with thirst. Employment emerges as the next prominent issue. Under the prior governance of Industries Minister Yashodhara Raje Scindia, groundwork for a food park was initiated in 2016, spanning 13 hectares of land. Nonetheless, until now, not a single unit has been constructed. Moreover, the absence of a sewage system could likely turn into a hot-button issue in the forthcoming elections.

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