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35 Indians are responsible for the death of one person due to carbon

35 Indians are responsible; A new study has established how many future lives will be lost, or saved, depending on whether we increase or

By Wahid Bhat
New Update
35 Indians are responsible

Ground Report | New Delhi: 35 Indians are responsible; A new study has established how many future lives will be lost, or saved, depending on whether we increase or decrease our current carbon emissions. On average 35 Indians emit so much carbon in their lifetime, which is enough to end the life of a person. It is estimated that an average Indian emits about 127 metric tons of carbon in their lifetime. 

Now, a new study published Thursday published in the journal Nature Communications The Mortality Cost of Carbon' has established the "mortality of carbon"—the number of lives lost or saved by the increase. In this context, India's per capita emissions are 173.2 percent less. On the other hand, an average American emits about 1,276 metric tons of carbon dioxide in their lifetime. 

Although this does not mean that 3.5 Americans or 35 Indians are killing one person, it is an estimate that suggests that 4,434 metric tons of carbon dioxide will be responsible for one death by the end of the century. On the other hand, if we talk about Nigeria, about 146.2 citizens there together emit so much in their lifetime. On a global basis, on an average 12.8 people emit this much in their lifetime. At the same time, this figure is 9.4 for the United Kingdom and 25.8 for Brazil.

35 Indians responsible for death of one person

Fig. 1
Average lifetime emissions are calculated as 2017 carbon dioxide emissions production

This directly shows that developed countries are emitting far more than developing countries, which is having a greater impact on the climate. To put it differently, an increase of one million metric tons in 2020 baseline emissions would kill 226 people, which is equivalent to emissions from 216,000 passenger vehicles. 

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According to research, if the rate at which emissions continue at the same rate, then by 2050, the global average temperature will increase by 2.1 °C. This is the limit that has been set under the Paris Agreement to limit the increase in temperature. Thereafter the consequences of climate change will only get worse over time. In this sense, the temperature will increase by 4.1 °C by the end of the century.

Due to this increase, about 83 million additional people will die by the end of the century. It is estimated that most of these deaths will occur in countries in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, which are already suffering from poverty and rising temperatures.

The study assumes that in our current emissions that the way, in 2050, average temperatures will exceed 2.1 degrees C (3.8 F) above those of pre-industrial times - the largely agreed limit after which the worst consequences of climate change will kick inwards. After that, things would get much worse quickly, with temperatures reaching 4.1 degrees C (7.4 F) higher in 2100. Bressler projects that under this scenario, climate change would cause 83 million excess deaths. in 2100.

Fig. 3
The DICE baseline emissions scenario results in 83 million cumulative excess deaths by 2100 in the central estimate

Social cost of carbon at $ 37 per metric ton

Since temperatures begin to hit truly serious levels in 2050 under this scenario, most of the premature deaths would occur after that. The study doesn't explicitly look at the geographic distribution, but Bressler says most of the deaths would be in regions that are already the hottest and poorest: Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia.

Nordhaus's general-purpose DICE model, which Bressler builds connected, currently puts the 2020 social cost of carbon at $ 37 per metric ton. This model suggests that in order to achieve the optimal balance between climate-related damages and emissions costs from cutting, we should cut saucer emissions now, and gradually cut to start in 2050. This would result in 3.4 degrees C (6.1 F) from warming up in 2100.

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Warming in 2100

But adding mortality to the model, Bressler puts the figure at $ 258 per ton - seven times that. This implies that we must cut emissions considerably now, and reach full decarbonisation in 2050. The result would be only 2.4 degrees of warming in 2100. As a consequence, by Bressler's calculation, excess deaths would drop to 9 million in 2100 - a saving of 74 million lives. This is not necessarily a recipe for the optimal climate action plan, he says - just an update to the optimal DICE action plan.

All of these figures are subject to political finagling. In 2009, the Obama administration first mandated scientists to calculate a US cost of carbon, and in 2017, the figure was $ 52. The Trump administration stopped more scientific work on the question and later came out with budgets ranging from about $ 15 to $ 1 per ton. When Joseph Biden took office, the scientists reassembled. An interim report released in February puts the 2020 reserve prices at $ 51 per ton; One more official budget is due in January 2022.

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