Is This the End of the Covid Pandemic or Calm Before the Storm?

Ground Report | New Delhi: End of the Covid Pandemic; Covid has been a terrifying experience for the entire world in the last 2 years. A Lot of people suffered the loss of their loved ones and a lot survived, this has kept everyone frustrated and anxious about what the future beholds. We have seen covid-19 mutations in the last two years with variants like delta and omicron having to face off with the vaccines. So when will this pandemic end and what else awaits us soon, are some curious questions for which we all need an answer.

Effect of Omicron and Delta Variants-

Covid-19 showed its colours in the form of its horrifying mortality rates and new mutations. After two strong years of fall, we are starting to feel a little calm since the mortality rates dropped. With Omicron coming our way, it might seem like a less severe variant but it is not. This is because, as per the World Health Organization, transmissibility is high among individuals and could easily target people with comorbidities and low immunity. India and other countries have proved to fight strongly against the virus by releasing vaccines as earliest as possible.

Delta shows similarity in it being twice as contagious and easily transmissible than previous variants. Thus, both these variants may easily get to people being airborne but will largely affect the unvaccinated population. Even a vaccinated population can act as a medium of transmission of the virus, as the virus might not affect them severely but can cause great harm to the unvaccinated or low immune population via transmission.

The Latest Variant and How Harmful can it be?

The latest variant found by Wuhan scientists 'NeoCov' in South Africa is causing fear in scientists and humans. The new variant, however, has only been found infecting animals but it is known to have a high mortality rate of 1 in 3 people if they get infected. A report of news18 states that the experts from the Russian State Virology and Biotechnology Research Center said "the vector research center is aware of the data obtained by Chinese researchers on the NeoCov Coronavirus. At the moment, the issue is not the emergence of a new coronavirus capable of actively spreading among humans." Thus, it does not possess as a current threat to the human population.

Is the End of Covid Pandemic soon?

The end of the pandemic or the endemic seems like a far-out possibility but the experts have some fascinating insights on such possibility. Dr Julian Tang, a consultant virologist and a professor at Leicester University has expressed her views in an interview that covid will not come to an end, rather it will become something with which we as humans are used to living.

The virus eventually will turn "clinically mild" which means it will neither be seasonal nor will completely end, it will in the future turn into flu that will have the capacity to be all year round but will be less infectious. Although the only possible way through this is by weakening the virus, the virus will weaken with transmission among vaccinated people eventually, but we all will have to take a further step and that is vaccination, precautions against covid, and proper treatment if infected.

Views of Various Experts-

Some experts point out that what happened in South Africa recently is fueling hopes for an end to the epidemic. And South African scientists discovered the "Omicron" variable for the first time last November, and injuries there peaked at that time and then declined rapidly, and this is what experts believe will happen everywhere in the world, noting that usually when there is a significant rise in the number of people infected with a disease is surprisingly rapid, followed by a "quiet period".

"It will be until about mid-February before we start seeing an improvement in the situation," says Dr. John Schwartzberg, an infectious disease expert, and vaccinologist at the University of California, Berkeley.

Schwartzberg believes that starting next March, the world will witness a significant decrease in cases, stressing that he is very optimistic that people will be able to lead their lives to some extent this year.

Part of Schwartzberg's optimism stems from the fact that there will be more recipients of the vaccine and booster doses this year, as well as more people who are immune to the virus as a result of infection, amid the rapid spread of "Omicron". He explained, "In general, the level of immunity in people after an omicron wave will be much higher than it was during previous waves, and this will help us to confront any new mutations."

What's Next?

The next target is to give at least one dose of booster vaccine to 70 percent of the Earth's population by the middle of this year. If this target is achieved, the prospect of the end of the Covid-19 pandemic will become more real. This is the WHO narrative.

Moreover, even though vaccination has been given to a large part of the population, there is still a global imbalance in vaccine access and distribution.

Several experts agree with the WHO Director-General that the pandemic will end this year. The reason is that the current wide vaccine coverage minimizes the magnitude of the pandemic. The vaccination program is indeed very massive. As of January 18, nearly 10 billion doses of the vaccine had been administered in 180 countries. About 60 per cent of the Earth's population has been covered by the vaccine.

Although there is still coverage asymmetry between one country and another, the current global coverage is considered to be close to community immunity (herd immunity). With this level, directly or indirectly, the transmission and fatality of Covid-19 are reduced. If this reduction continues, the pandemic will gradually disappear.

In Conclusion-

What we had to see in the second with hospitals filled with patients, running out of oxygen, running out of places to cremate or bury the bodies and black marketing of oxygen and medicines, was a horrifying thing to experience, we are fortunate enough to have survived and thus, should get vaccinated and be precautious not to be grateful but to just be kinder to the lives of other people.

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