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The 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 28) is currently underway in Dubai, aiming to formulate a comprehensive global strategy to combat climate change. Concurrently, a report by Christian Aid has highlighted the severe economic consequences that climate change could inflict on the Arabian Peninsula.
The report, titled ‘Mercury Rising: The Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Arabian Peninsula,’ led by research Scholar Marina Andrijevic from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Vienna, warns of significant economic losses if global warming continues unchecked.
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It projects that by the year 2100, if temperatures rise by three degrees Celsius, the Arabian Peninsula’s GDP could plummet by an average of 69 percent. The host nations of COP 28, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are particularly at risk, with potential GDP losses of up to 72 percent due to the adverse effects of climate change.
This year’s conference, marking the first Gulf nation-hosted COP since 2012, has brought together delegates to deliberate on setting a timeline for the global phase-out of fossil fuels. The emphasis of the report on the economic toll of increasing temperatures in regions already known as some of the hottest on Earth makes the discussions especially pertinent.
The Arabian Peninsula is the largest peninsula in the world, and is made up of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. It also includes southern Iraq and Jordan.
Climate change threatens Arabian economy
The findings underscore the urgency for global leaders and policymakers gathered at COP 28 to address the climate crisis and its ramifications for economies worldwide, particularly those in the heat-vulnerable Arabian Peninsula.
Marina Andreevich, the lead researcher of the report and an economist at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Vienna, points out the severe economic impact that will befall the Arabian Peninsula if temperatures continue to rise.
Marina said, “This study shows us the serious economic damage that will occur to people in the region if temperatures continue to rise in the already hot Arabian Peninsula. It is regrettable that global warming will affect oil production in this region of the world. And the gas will be produced by burning".
"Securing a COP28 agreement to phase out fossil fuels, thus reducing emissions and combating climate change, is paramount. The economic drawback of increased pollutants is not limited to the Arab region; many countries' poorest citizens bear the brunt of climate change consequences," she added.
Senior climate advisor Joab Okanda of Christian Aid points out that this year is on track to be the hottest on record, with fossil fuels responsible for up to 75% of greenhouse gas emissions. He emphasizes the threat to lives in the Arabian Peninsula, where extreme heat is already a challenge, and criticizes the lack of action on phasing out fossil fuels in previous COP meetings. Okanda urges that the UAE, as one of the largest oil-producing countries, is an ideal place to lead the change.
Key findings from report
- The report provides estimates of the economic losses due to climate change across eight countries in the Arabian Peninsula.
- A projected increase in global warming by three degrees Celsius by the year 2100 could lead to an average GDP loss of 69 per cent for the region.
- The UAE and Saudi Arabia, hosts of COP28, could face a GDP loss of 72 per cent.
- The Gulf countries have some of the highest per capita CO2 emissions globally.
- An average individual in the UAE has a carbon footprint greater than 645 people in the Republic of Congo.
Burke et al.'s peer-reviewed projections indicate significant economic risk for Gulf countries due to climate change, with a potential GDP reduction of 69% by 2100 if global temperatures rise to 3 degrees Celsius. Even limiting the rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius as per the Paris Agreement, the GDP could still drop by 8.2% by 2050 and 36% by 2100.
Prof. Messam Kadradan notes growing economic damage from climate change, pointing to fossil fuels as the main cause. He joins COP28's call for a set date to end their use and warns of serious effects on the Arabian Peninsula if fossil fuel projects expand further.
The study underscores the risks associated with the continued reliance on fossil fuels, which account for 75 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions. In light of these findings, climate scientists and activists in the region have urged for a consensus on a date to phase out fossil fuels during the ongoing COP28 summit.
The study predicts potential GDP losses for Gulf economies due to climate change by 2050 and 2100, despite anticipated improvements. It also points out that these countries have the world's highest per capita pollutant emissions.
Impact of global warming scenarios on GDP growth rate
| Country | Growth Impact by 2050 at 1.5°C | Growth Impact by 2050 at 2°C | Growth Impact by 2100 at 1.5°C | Growth Impact by 2100 at 3°C | Per Capita CO2 Emissions (2022, tons) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | -8.4% | -12.5% | -37.4% | -72% | 18.2 |
| UAE | -8.5% | -12.2% | -37.8% | -71.6% | 25.8 |
| Kuwait | -8.8% | -12.4% | -39.7% | -71.2% | 25.6 |
| Qatar | -8.1% | -11.9% | -37.3% | -69.6% | 37.6 |
| Oman | -8.3% | -10.9% | -35.2% | -67.3% | 15.7 |
| Iraq | -6.8% | -9.5% | -33.5% | -62% | 4 |
| Yemen | -5.2% | -7.7% | -25.5% | -52.1% | 0.3 |
| Jordan | -3.2% | -4.5% | -16.6% | -37.7% | 2 |
Middle East faces severe consequences
Shady Khalil, the campaign lead at Greenpeace Middle East and North America, emphasizes the dire consequences of climate change for the Middle East and North Africa.
He warns that rising temperatures could make vast areas of these regions uninhabitable, leading to increased vulnerability, community displacement, conflict, and premature deaths.
Shady Khalil further said, “As one of the regions most seriously at risk from climate change, the Middle East and North Africa face a future where rising temperatures could render vast areas uninhabitable, increasing the vulnerability and displacement of countless communities. , war and premature deaths may occur".
He further added, "At COP28 we must commit to a just and equitable phaseout of fossil fuels. This resolution is not just for the good of our region, but it is a call to the world to act on the urgent need to adopt renewable energy sources. The actions we take today will determine whether this region and the rest of the world remain livable for generations to come.”
Former atmospheric physics professor Joanna Hay from Imperial College London links fossil fuels directly to the climate crisis and the necessity of their phase-out to prevent escalating global temperatures and disasters. She notes the high risk faced by the Gulf region and the dire climate challenges it will encounter if current temperature trends persist.
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