Climate action: Indian economy may suffer a loss of 27 percent annually

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Due to these changes in the climate, by 2050, where the Philippine economy may suffer a loss of 35 percent. Whereas for Colombia it is likely to be 16.7 percent

Ground Report | New Delhi: The Indian economy may suffer a loss of 27 percent annually by 2050 if action is not taken now to stop climate change. The information has come out in an analysis done by Oxfam. It is estimated that with an increase in temperature by 2.6 ° C, events like floods, droughts, hurricanes, heatwaves will become more common. Along with this, this increasing temperature will also affect health, agricultural productivity, and people’s ability to work.

The annual loss to the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and America), then it is estimated to be around 8.5 percent of its economy, which is about Rs 349 lakh crore would be equal to. In such a situation, Oxfam has urged G7 leaders to cut carbon emissions as quickly as possible to avoid this.

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Summary of GDP projections and climate pledges of G7 nations:

 Predicted GDP loss by 2050 assuming 2.6°C of warmingEmission reduction commitmentClimate finance pledged to 2025
Canada-6.9%40-45% reduction by 2030 on 2005 levelsNot yet stated
 
France-10%No new national level commitment yet (but new EU objective is 55% below 1990 by 2030)Maintain current levels of €6 billion ($7.3bn) a year, with €2 billion of that for adaptation
Germany-8.3%65% reduction by 2030 on 1990 levels as part of the new EU objective of 55% below 1990 levels by 2030.Not yet stated
Italy-11.4%No new national level commitment yet (but new EU objective is 55% below 1990 by 2030)Not yet stated
Japan-9.1%46% reduction by 2030 on 2013 levelsNot yet stated
UK-6.5%68% reduction by 2030 on 1990 levels£11.6 billion ($16.5bn) over the period, with 50% for adaptation
US-7.2%50-52% reduction on 2005 levels$5.7 billion per year by 2024, with $1.5 billion (26%) for adaptation
Average-8.485714%N/AN/A

The loss to G7 countries in GDP due to climate change is almost double the economic loss caused by covid-19. It is estimated that the economies of these seven countries have decreased by an average of 4.2 percent due to covid-19.

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The study done by Swiss Re, it has shown that climate change and its associated crises such as increased stress due to heat, health, natural disasters, rising sea level and decreasing agricultural productivity are already affecting the economy.

In all 48 countries included in this study, the economy is likely to decline due to climate change. Not only this, it is estimated that this loss to many countries is estimated to be much more than G7 countries.

According to the analysis, in the G7 countries where Canada’s economy may decline by 6.9 percent. Whereas in France 10 percent, Germany 8.3 percent, Italy 11.4 percent, Japan 9.1 percent, UK 6.5 percent and America’s economy is expected to decline by about 7.2 percent by 2050 with a growth of 2.6 degrees Celsius. 

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Due to these changes in the climate, by 2050, where the Philippine economy may suffer a loss of 35 percent. Whereas for Colombia it is likely to be 16.7 percent. On the other hand, the economy of Australia is estimated to decline by 12.5 percent, in South Africa by 17.8 percent, and in South Korea by 9.7 percent.

Oxfam has warned that the consequences of climate change could be much more severe for low-income countries. A recent study by the World Bank has shown that by 2030, another 132 million people will be forced to face extreme poverty due to climate change. A large part of which would be living in these backward countries.

Max Lawson of Oxfam said that over the next nine years, G7 countries need to cut their emissions and increase aid to combat climate change. According to him, this economic loss to the G7 countries is only a small part of the problem. In many parts of the world, the death toll, poverty, and starvation due to these extreme weather events are likely to be much higher. If countries take this threat seriously and want to make our planet safe for all, this year could be a turning point in that direction.

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