Changing climate: J&K and Ladakh record No rainfall in December

December 2023 was the driest month of the year for Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, with rainfall deficits of 79% and 100%, respectively. J&K only had 12.6 mm of rain, much less than the usual 59.4 mm, while Ladakh had no rain at all.

According to the India Meteorological Department, out of 20 districts in Jammu and Kashmir, 16 had significantly less rain, and two had less than usual. There was no data for Kishtwar and Poonch districts.

The data, sourced from the India Meteorological Department and assessed by the news agency—Kashmir News Observer (KNO), revealed that out of the 20 districts in Jammu and Kashmir, 16 experienced ‘large deficient’ rainfall while two districts recorded ‘deficient’ rainfall. The districts of Kishtwar and Poonch were not included in the data due to unavailability.

District	Rainfall Deficit (%)
Jammu and Kashmir	96
Kathua	92
Shopian	90
Reasi	90
Samba	89
Udhampur	87
Ramban	82
Baramulla	79
Jammu	79
Bandipora	78
Kulgam	75
Kupwara	75
Ganderbal	69
Doda	68
Anantnag	65
Srinagar	62
Pulwama	55
Budgam	49

Both Kargil and Leh districts in Ladakh registered 'no rainfall', a situation that we haven't witnessed in recent years. The district of Rajouri in Jammu and Kashmir showed the highest deficiency, with a staggering 96% deficit.

This dry spell is not an isolated event but part of a larger pattern that has been observed over the years. A study of past weather patterns reveals that the region has been experiencing increasingly arid winters. For instance, February emerged as the second driest month with a rainfall deficit of 69%, followed by March at 48% and August at 29%.

Few winter rain-causing disturbances

The lack of active Western Disturbances, which are primarily responsible for winter rains in the northwestern parts of the Indian subcontinent, contributed to the arid conditions in December 2023.

According to the Global Forecast System (GFS) weather model from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a total of 6 Western Disturbances influenced both Union Territories during the month, with the majority being weak and failing to bring any rain or snow.

According to the India Meteorological Department, October was the rainiest month of the year, with 141% more rainfall than usual. February was the second driest month with 69% less rainfall, followed by March with 48% less and August with 29% less.

Except for some rain on December 1, 2023, there were no major weather disturbances that month, Kashmir-based News agency KNO reported.

Historical perspective

The Global Forecast System weather model showed that six weather disturbances affected both Union Territories during the month, but most were weak and didn’t bring any rain or snow.

This year, January started off dry, with no major weather disturbances predicted for the next week. It’s worth noting that last year, January had 42% more rainfall than usual, following a significant 78% deficit in December 2022.

Historically, these regions have witnessed dry spells during winter. In January 2021, an intense cold wave accompanied by a dry spell swept across these regions. Similarly, in 2020, the regions experienced a dry and cold period known as Chillai Kalan, a 40-day harsh winter period starting from December 21.

The usual weather pattern in these regions includes snowfall in the higher reaches, while the plains receive rainfall. However, this pattern was disrupted in December 2023, leading to a significant drop in the maximum temperatures. The prolonged dry spell has potential implications for agriculture in these regions.

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