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A study analyzing monsoon data from the past 40 years on a district-by-district basis found that approximately 30% of India’s districts have experienced more years with below-average rainfall. Conversely, 38% of the districts have seen a greater number of years with above-average rainfall.
The Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) conducted this analysis and discovered that 23% of these districts, including New Delhi, Bengaluru, Nilgiris, Jaipur, Kutch, and Indore, have experienced a significant number of years with both low and high rainfall.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) collects monsoon data from about 717 districts across the country.
55% tehsils experience rainfall decrease
A detailed analysis of monsoon trends revealed that 55% of Indian tehsils experienced a 10% decrease in southwest monsoon rainfall from 2012 to 2022, compared to the climate baseline of the previous decade (1982 to 2011). Conversely, an increase of over 100% was observed in some areas.
Interestingly, about 11% of Indian tehsils, particularly in the last decade (2012 to 2022), saw a decrease of more than 10% compared to the climate baseline (1982 to 2011).
While the declining trend in the southwest monsoon over the past forty years wasn’t consistently significant, the study found that these tehsils are located in the Gangetic plains of India, Northeast India, and the Indian Himalayan region. These areas contribute to over half of India’s agricultural production and host fragile but highly diverse ecosystems.
The study also noted that about 68% of these tehsils experienced deficient rainfall throughout the months of June to September, with 87% witnessing declines during the early monsoon months of June and July, which are critical for the sowing of kharif crops.
Regarding the Northeast Monsoon rains, which primarily affect Peninsular India, the study found that in the last decade (2012-2022), about 80% of tehsils in Tamil Nadu, 44% in Telangana, and 39% in Andhra Pradesh experienced an increase in rainfall.
Monthly rain patterns analyzed
The report reveals that every month, approximately 48% of tehsils in India experienced an increase in rainfall by more than 10% in October. This could be attributed to the delayed retreat of the southwest monsoon from the subcontinent.
The study emphasizes the need for closer monitoring and local decision-making regarding the monsoon, which is crucial for building resilience against monsoon changes. In line with this, the Meteorological Department has launched a mission named “Panchayat Mausam Seva”. This initiative aims to provide weather forecasts to every farmer in every village, marking the 150th anniversary of its establishment.
Furthermore, the study recommends the creation of district-level climate action plans that incorporate tehsil-level climate risk assessments. Following the 2019 directive of the Union Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, all Indian states and union territories are currently revising their State Action Plans (SAPCCs) on Climate Change by 2030. While current plans focus on district-level climate hazard analysis, the study highlights the availability of tehsil-level climate information.
Lastly, the study advocates for investment in automated weather stations and community-based recording to monitor rainfall changes at the local level.
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