/ground-report/media/post_banners/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Half-of-total-COVID-deaths.jpg)
Ground Report | New Delhi: COVID's true death toll; More than three times as many people may have died globally as a result of the pandemic than official COVID-19 death records suggest, according to an analysis published in The Lancet.
COVID's true death toll
While the official number of deaths from COVID-19 was 5.9 million between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2021, the new study estimates that an excess of 18.2 million deaths occurred during the same period, suggesting that the full impact of the pandemic may have been much greater.
Excess deaths, the difference between the number of recorded deaths from all causes and the number expected based on past trends, is a key measure of the actual number of deaths from the pandemic. While there have been several attempts to estimate excess mortality from COVID-19, the geographic scope of most has been limited by data availability.
The new study provides the first peer-reviewed estimates of excess deaths due to the pandemic globally and for 191 countries and territories (and 252 subnational locations such as states and provinces) between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2020. 2021.
Weekly or monthly data on deaths from all causes in 2021, 2020, and up to 11 previous years for 74 countries and 266 states and provinces were obtained through searches of government websites, the World Mortality Database, the human mortality and the European Statistical Office. The data was used in models to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic, even for places without weekly or monthly reporting of death data.
The analysis indicates that global excess deaths due to the pandemic may have totalled 18.2 million, more than three times the officially reported figure, by December 31, 2021. The rate of excess deaths is estimated to mortality is 120 deaths per 100,000 population worldwide, and 21 countries were estimated to have rates of more than 300 excess deaths per 100,000 population. Rates of excess deaths are estimated to have varied dramatically by country and region.
The highest excess mortality rates were estimated in Andean Latin America (512 deaths per 100,000 population), Eastern Europe (345 deaths per 100,000), Central Europe (316 deaths per 100,000), Southern Sub-Saharan Africa (309 deaths per 100,000) and Central Latin America (274 deaths per 100,000).
Several places outside of these regions are estimated to have had similarly high rates, including Lebanon, Armenia, Tunisia, Libya, several regions of Italy, and several southern US states. In stark contrast, some countries were estimated to have had fewer deaths. than expected based on mortality trends in previous years, including Iceland (48 fewer deaths per 100,000), Australia (38 fewer deaths per 100,000), and Singapore (16 fewer deaths per 100,000).
A much bigger impact
"The full impact of the pandemic has been much greater than has been indicated by recorded deaths due to Covid-19," the researchers note. "Official statistics on recorded Covid-19 deaths show only a partial picture of the true mortality burden."
The country that would have the largest excess deaths from Covid would be India. Compared to the 489,000 reported between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2021, the authors of the study point out that the real mortality is 8.33 times that registered: 4.07 million people would have died from the infection.
They are followed by the United States (1.13 million) and Russia (1.07 million) . Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia and Pakistan exceeded half a million deaths, and six other countries (Bangladesh, Peru, South Africa, Iran, Egypt and Italy) exceeded the threshold of 250,000 deaths.
Spain would be the 35th country with the highest number of deaths from Covid. The report calculates 162,000 deaths caused by the infection, compared to the 98,900 officially registered according to the study (the data from the Ministry of Health, notified on the first working day of 2022, spoke of 89,000 deaths, but there is usually a notable delay in the inclusion of the death figures).
Reported deaths and excess mortality
| Country | Reported deaths | excess mortality |
|---|---|---|
| India | 489 000 | 4.070.000 |
| Rusia | 651 000 | 1.070.000 |
| USA | 824 000 | 1.130.000 |
| Mexico | 418 000 | 798.000 |
| Brazil | 619 000 | 792.000 |
| Indonesia | 144 000 | 736.000 |
| Pakistan | 28 900 | 664.000 |
| Bangladesh | 28 100 | 413.000 |
| Peru | 203 000 | 349.000 |
| South Africa | 91 100 | 302.000 |
| Poland | 97 100 | 214.000 |
| Iran | 132 000 | 274000 |
| Egypt | 21 800 | 265000 |
| Italy | 137 000 | 259000 |
| Ethiopia | 6 940 | 208000 |
| Germany | 112 000 | 203000 |
| Afghanistan | 7 360 | 192000 |
| Turkey | 82 400 | 185000 |
| Philippines | 53 000 | 184000 |
| Iraq | 24 200 | 183000 |
Regions most affected
All in all, Central and Eastern Europe are one of the regions with the highest excess mortality worldwide, with Poland (214,000 deaths), Germany (203,000) and Ukraine (181,000) being the most affected countries. Central and South America, the Middle East, South Asia and South Africa are the most affected regions.
The causes for this excess mortality, beyond Covid, are varied. On the one hand, it has been theorized that the decrease in health care, the reduction in vaccination coverage and the increase in anxiety and depression rates – and, consequently, suicide rates – may partly explain these differences.
On the flip side, the reduction in airborne pollutants during the months of strict lockdowns may have positively impacted death from chronic respiratory diseases, with deaths from influenza and respiratory syncytial virus down 80% between January and March 2021, according to the WHO.
Joan Caylá highlights the good work of the countries that have followed 'zero Covid' strategies. Australia would have 18,100 fewer deaths than expected despite the 2,250 officially reported. New Zealand, 872 fewer; Singapore, 1,770 negative. "These countries have done very well with the economy and health, but those that have navigated between two glasses of water, like Spain, in neither of the two fields."
However, the arrival of ómicron has meant a change in trend, registering in recent months the highest number of deaths of the entire pandemic. Hong Kong is a paradigmatic case in this regard: from just registering two hundred deaths over these two years to adding 2,600 in just three weeks. (COVID's true death toll)
The authors expect that vaccination coverage and the appearance of new variants will continue to modify the trends in excess mortality. But what they are clear about is that the magnitude of this pandemic has been much greater than what the figures have been telling us all this time.
You can connect with Ground Report on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and Whatsapp and Subscribe to our YouTube channel. For suggestions and writeups mail us at [email protected]
ALSO READ:
