Uneven warming trends threaten spring season in India; study

A recent analysis conducted by Climate Central has uncovered concerning patterns in India's winter temperatures, shedding light on potential threats to the spring season.

The analysis, covering the period from 1970 to 2023, indicates that while winters are generally getting warmer nationwide, the rate of temperature increase varies by region and month.

The southern states of Manipur and Sikkim have experienced the highest increase in winter temperatures, particularly in December and January. Conversely, northern areas like Delhi and Ladakh have seen minimal warming or even slight cooling during these months.

February stands out with a significant warming trend across all regions, particularly in the north. Jammu and Kashmir, for instance, recorded the highest temperature rise in February, suggesting a compressed spring season.

The stark contrast between the cooler January and the warmer February in northern India points to a sudden shift from traditional cool winter conditions to much warmer weather, effectively shortening the spring season. This phenomenon is evident in states like Rajasthan, where the temperature difference between January and February exceeds 2°C.

Climate Central’s study utilized daily temperature data from ERA 5, a comprehensive computer model that consolidates weather observations from multiple sources. The research calculated monthly and seasonal averages for 34 states and union territories, using linear regression to illustrate long-term temperature trends.

The uneven warming trends pose significant challenges to India's ecosystems and traditional weather patterns. The accelerated warming, especially in February, threatens to disrupt agricultural cycles, water resources, and biodiversity, necessitating adaptive measures and sustainable practices.

Nationwide winter temperatures rise

The report states that every region of the country included in the study has recorded an increase in temperature during winter. Since 1970, the temperature in Manipur has recorded the highest increase of 2.3 degrees Celsius, while the temperature in the country's capital, Delhi, has only seen the lowest increase of 0.2 degrees Celsius.

Climate Central included 34 states and union territories of the country in the study and found that the winter season was the fastest warming season in 12 states and union territories. During autumn, 13 areas recorded the fastest increase in temperature. Therefore, from this perspective, winter season ranked second after autumn in terms of temperature increase.

The country has recorded considerable temperature variations even during winter. The report indicates that the southern part of the country recorded a higher increase in temperature during December and January. The data also reveals that Sikkim and Manipur recorded the maximum temperature variations of 2.4 degrees Celsius and 2.1 degrees Celsius respectively in December and January.

However, during December and January, the northern part of the country registered a decrease in temperatures. One can say that winters are growing colder in these regions. During this period, the temperature of Delhi dropped by -0.2 degrees Celsius, and it further decreased to -0.8 degrees Celsius in January.

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