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One person can infect 406 people in 30 days, if lockdown lifted: ICMR

Ground Report, Wahid Bhat:

The Indian Council of Medical Research’s (ICMR) latest research said that one sick person could infect up to 406 others in 30 days as the number of coronavirus cases crossed 5000 in India. The ICMR study comes at a time when various state governments have requested the Centre to extend the 21-day lockdown beyond April 14.

The study talks about a scenario where 75 per cent of the lockdown is lifted. Addressing a Press Conference, Union Health Ministry’s Joint Health Secretary Lav Agarwal said “ICMR has done a study and based on that, if the social exposure is reduced by 75% then one infected person will infect 2.5 others in a matter of 30 days,”. He added that if the same person also follows 75 percent of the guidelines suggested by the government, then he can infect 2.5 people at most on average.

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One person can infect 406 people in 30 days in no lockdown: ICMRThe Secretary explained that if we consider Or-Not as 2.5, then a positive person who does not follow lockdown and social distance can infect 406 people in 30 days. But if social distance and lockdown measures are reduced even by 75 per cent, Agarwal said that he would be able to infect only 2.5 people.

Explain that Or-Not or R0 is a measurement to illustrate the rate of infection of any disease. It is an epidemiological term that describes the reproductive number of viruses. Agarwal said that according to a study conducted by the scientific body ICMR, R-Not for Corona virus is between 1.4 and 1.5.

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Agarwal said that under the Smart City project, new technology-based services in other cities including Pune, Bhopal and Surat are also being effectively supported in the corona control campaign. With this help, monitoring of transition in areas connected to smart city, operation of ambulance service with real time system and exchange of information based on IT technology is helping a lot.

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Agarwal said that the government is adopting a strategy for cluster control and outbreak management. This strategy is bringing positive results, especially in areas such as Agra, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Pathanamthitta, Bhilwara and East Delhi.


  • Wahid Bhat

    Wahid Bhat is an environmental journalist with a passion for covering climate change and environmental issues. He holds a degree in English Journalism (EJ) from the Indian Institute of Mass Communication and has received Media Fellow for NFI India (National Foundation for India) and Thomson Reuters Foundation. Wahid's reporting has been published in a range of respected outlets including Earth Journalism, Global Village Space, The Quint, Youth Ki Awaaz, and Devdiscourse

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