Ocean surface climate may disappear by 2100: study

Until humanity curbs its carbon emissions, 95 percent of Earth's ocean surface will have changed by the end of the century, according to research, which is published in the journal Nature Scientific Reports.     

According to scientists, how much sea surface climate will change depends on how much emissions will be on the global level in the future. This is the reason why scientists have expressed the possibility of change in the climate of 35.6% to 95% of the area. The research also showed that tropical and temperate regions of both the northern and southern hemispheres are most at risk of change.

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Ocean surface climate may disappear

The water temperature, acidity and amount of aragonite at the surface. If seen, aragonite is of great importance from the point of view of marine life, it is the basis of a large number of marine organisms. It is used by sea creatures to make their bones and shell.

. In which he studied it by dividing it into three periods, the beginning of the 19th century (1795 to 1834), the end of the 20th century (1965 to 2004) and the end of the 21st century (2065 to 2104). They have used two emission scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, to understand the changes in the climate, and on the basis of this they have tried to understand the changes in the climate. 

The findings of this modeling showed that the climate that existed in the 19th and 20th centuries has completely changed in the 21st century. However, there were no significant changes in ocean climate between the 19th and 20th centuries. 

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At the same time, according to research, by the end of the 21st century, up to 81.9 percent of the ocean surface will experience a completely new climate in the future, a climate that never existed before. In this new climate, the temperature and acidity will be higher than before, and the amount of aragonite will decrease significantly. In this way, this new climate will create new challenges for the organisms.

Diminishing options

Katie Lotterhaus and her colleagues modeled ocean climate globally for three time periods: the beginning of the 19th century (1795–1834), the end of the 20th century (1965–2004) and the end of the 21st century. in (2065–2104). The authors compared these modeling climates at different locations using two emission scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Under these scenarios, the amount of greenhouse gases emitted during the 21st century either peaked in 2050, followed by a slow increase, or progressively slowed after the peak in 2100.

Through their comparisons, the authors were able to show which ocean climates of the 19th and 20th centuries could no longer be found in the 21st century (disappearing), and which climates that may emerge in the 21st century are those of the 18th and 20th. century did not exist. Centuries (novel climate).

The authors showed that while ocean climate did not change significantly between the 19th and 20th centuries, by 2100, 10% to 82% of the ocean surface could experience new weather with higher temperatures, more acidic pH, and lower saturation of aragonite. Is. Aragonite is a mineral that corals and other marine organisms use to make shells. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, 35.6% of the surface ocean climate could disappear by 2100, which increases to 95% under the RCP 8.5 scenario.

The authors conclude that while some marine species are currently adapting to the changing oceanic climate by spreading to new habitats, this may no longer be possible if the existing marine climate disappears, causing the species to either rapidly adapt to the new climate. adapt or disappear.

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