More wind and solar power needed to fight global warming

A recent analysis by Climate Analytics highlights the need for a rapid increase in renewable energy deployment to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2030.

According to the study, to achieve this goal and minimize reliance on renewable energy technology, Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR), the world would need to add 1.5 terawatts (TW) of new wind and solar power capacity by 2030, at a rate five times faster than the current rate of capacity additions. This would require a global increase in wind and solar capacity of approximately 10 TW by the end of the decade.

The analysis suggests that the goal of increasing wind and solar capacity is achievable if recent capacity addition trends continue. Claire Faison, Policy Director at Climate Analytics, stresses the importance of setting a global renewable energy target based on the safest path to achieving net-zero emissions.

"Everyone from the EU to the COP presidency is calling for a global renewable energy target, but this must be based on the surest route to net zero. We have shown that if the world accelerates new wind and solar energy five times to at least 1.5 TW a year by 2030, and at the same time reduces the use of fossil fuels by 40%, we will not have to rely on quantities potentially unsustainable carbon dioxide removals in the future," says Claire Fyson.

The study outlines key goals to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2030. These goals include rapidly increasing renewable energy to make up 70% of the global energy mix within this decade, reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 8% per year to halve global emissions by 2030, and reducing global methane emissions by 34% during this critical period. In the energy sector, methane emissions will need to be reduced even faster, by up to 66%.

Key points from Study

Install at least 1.5 terawatts (TW) of new wind and solar capacity per year by 2030, representing a five-fold increase from the 2022 level of 0.3 TW. Total wind and solar power capacity should reach approximately 10 TW by the end of the decade, five times the capacity in 2022. Maintaining the recent acceleration in capacity additions is crucial to achieving this goal. Furthermore, if the demand for electricity grows rapidly, about 2 TW per year of solar and wind installations will be needed by 2030.

Set a global renewable energy target of at least 70% of electricity generation by 2030, more than double the current share of around 30%.

Reduce global fossil fuel production by 6% each year starting in 2022, with the goal of decreasing fossil fuel use by approximately 40% over the decade.

Cut global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in half (by 48%) by 2030 compared to 2019 levels. This requires a faster reduction rate of 8% per year (2021-2030) to significantly reduce reliance on carbon dioxide removal. This is more ambitious than the 43% reduction highlighted by the IPCC.

Reduce methane emissions in the energy sector by 66% by 2030. Methane emissions in the energy sector must decrease at a rate twice as fast as total methane emissions, which is targeted to decrease by 34% during the decade. The current 30% cut in the Global Methane Pledge is not aligned with 1.5°C trajectories.

Renewable sources by 2030

At least 70% of electricity generation must come from renewable sources by 2030. To align with the Paris Agreement, fossil fuel production must be reduced by approximately 40% by 2030, which corresponds to a reduction in 6% per year.

Achieving these targets would result in a 50% reduction in global emissions by 2030, which is equivalent to an 8% annual reduction.

The study highlights the need to reduce methane emissions by 34% during this decade, with a specific focus on achieving a significant reduction of up to 66% in the energy sector.

Dr. Neil Grant, climate and energy analyst at Climate Analytics, stresses the importance of accelerating the deployment of wind and solar power, as these sources have the potential to rapidly replace fossil fuels.

The study methodology focused on the latest pathways aligned to the 1.5°C target, integrating sustainability constraints and filtering out older analysis and assumptions based on high-risk scenarios. As a result, the analysis suggests that by 2030, only 0.1% of global electricity/energy will be derived from carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies.

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