Sicily Yacht Sunk: What is waterspout’s climate change connection?

A luxury yacht off the coast of Sicily has sunk, leaving six people missing, including British tycoon Mike Lynch, his 18-year-old daughter Hannah, Jonathan Bloomer, the president of Morgan Stanley International, and his wife Judy. Also missing are Lynch’s lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda. Of the 16 others on board, 15 were rescued, while one crew member, Canadian chef Ricardo Thomas, was found dead.

The search for the missing is focused on the sunken yacht, believed to be trapped 50 meters deep. The underwater rescue team, comprised of specialist divers from Rome and Sardinia, resumed operations early Tuesday after being suspended overnight. The operation is complex due to the wreck’s depth, allowing divers only 10 minutes of search time per dive.

What causes a waterspout?

Waterspouts are whirling columns of air and water that usually form over the ocean. They are categorized into two types: fair-weather and tornadic waterspouts. Fair-weather waterspouts form when winds from different directions meet, typically when cool air from land moves over warm ocean water. Tornadic waterspouts share characteristics with terrestrial tornadoes, forming under strong thunderstorms and often accompanied by high winds, storm surges, hail, and lightning.

The specific waterspout that struck the yacht hasn’t been directly linked to climate change, but rising global temperatures contribute to stronger storms. Sicily, enduring intense heat this summer, is particularly vulnerable to climate change, with warming rates about 20% higher than the global average.

Open hatches, storm, strong winds, capsizing

Aside from the storm, other factors may have contributed to the yacht’s sinking. BBC News suggests that water could have entered through open hatches or doors due to the warm coastal climate. Italy has been scorching, with several cities on red alert, and it is possible that the yacht’s occupants left doors open for ventilation.

Sam Jefferson, editor of Sailing Today magazine, speculates that strong winds may have caused the yacht to capsize. Survivors reported the boat tilted and sank within seconds, consistent with witness accounts of it disappearing almost instantly.

Unlike rain events, tornadoes and waterspouts formation have limited radar data, according to Professor Jason Evans from the Climate Change Research Centre at UNSW.

“That’s a massive gap in our knowledge,” he said. “We don’t even know how frequent they’ve been recently.”

Connection between waterspouts and climate breakdown?

The relationship between waterspouts and climate change isn’t fully understood, but the increasing intensity and frequency of severe weather events have been linked to the climate crisis. Warmer air, from global temperature rise, holds more moisture, increasing the likelihood of thunderstorms and violent storms.

In recent years, unusual weather patterns have been observed. For instance, 15 waterspouts were recorded in a single day off the coasts of Italy, France, and Spain. Dr. Peter Inness, a meteorologist at the University of Reading, notes that waterspouts are more likely when sea surface temperatures are high. The current sea surface temperature near Sicily is 2.5 to 3 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1990-2020 average, which could have contributed to the deadly waterspout that struck the yacht.

Warmer ocean temperatures intensify storms, said Luca Mercalli, president of the Italian Meteorological Society, tying the Sicily tragedy to climate change. He said a 3-degree spike in Mediterranean Sea temperatures added energy to the weather system.

“Thirty years ago, winds of 100km/h might have been expected,” he told The Guardian. “Today it’s 150km/h due to sea temperatures 3 degrees higher, resulting in more storm energy, and explosive cold air.”

One study found that water pollution frequency is increasing with warming water. The Mediterranean and the ocean off south-east Australia are global warming hotspots, with water warming three times the global average.

The Sicily tragedy highlights the dangers of volatile weather, raising concerns about climate change’s impact on our environment and safety.

According to @CMEMS_EU product CNR MED, the maximum sea surface temperature record was broken in the Mediterranean Sea yesterday:🌡️daily mean of 28.56ºC and median of 28.90ºC. The previous SST record took place on July 24, 2023 (daily mean of 28.40ºC and median of 28.71 ºC)🧵 pic.twitter.com/cGuyxaZHNz

— Justino Martínez (@margonjus) August 16, 2024

Waterspouts, a type of tornado, are rotating columns of air that form over water or move from land into water. They are often accompanied by strong winds, rough seas, hail, and dangerous lightning. They are most common over tropical oceans but can form almost anywhere.

Waterspouts rely on warm waters for energy. The Mediterranean Sea has been very warm, reaching a record daily average of 28.9°C (84°F) last week, according to preliminary data from researchers at the Institute of Marine Sciences in Spain.

Local temperatures have been higher, with waters around Sicily reaching nearly 30°C (86°F), almost 3 degrees warmer than normal, Italian climatologist Luca Mercalli told CNN. Warmer oceans have more energy and moisture to transfer to the atmosphere, the most important fuels for storms.

Waterspouts in Australia: Rare but destructive

Tornadic waterspouts are rare in Australia but have caused significant damage. In 2010, one destroyed homes in Lennox Head, and in 2015, a similar vortex struck Kurnell, damaging Sydney’s desalination plant and sucking a worker out of a control-room window.

The recent Bayesian incident off the Sicily coast isn’t the first time tornadic waterspouts have caused havoc for yachts. In 2001, a massive waterspout tore through the Sydney to Hobart race, ripping the mainsail off the leading maxi yacht.

Non-tornadic waterspouts can also pose a threat. In April, a waterspout made landfall in Green Point on the Mid North Coast, hurling barbecues and trampolines into the air and damaging numerous homes.

Fair-weather waterspouts usually lose energy upon reaching land. They are spotted far out to sea, spinning above the warm waters off the coasts of New South Wales and Queensland. They are more likely to occur in autumn and winter when the air over land is colder while the ocean remains warm.

In 2022, warm water off the Illawarra coast created a line of six waterspouts. It’s common for multiple waterspouts to form simultaneously along a “convergence line,” where two winds meet, creating the perfect conditions for these phenomena.

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