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Himachal Pradesh faces risk of 7 Magnitude earthquake, predictions warn

Seismic alert: Himachal Pradesh faces a potential 7+ magnitude earthquake, per Earthquake Research. Epicenter likely in Doda, Chamba, Dharamshala, or Kangra. Tremors could affect Punjab, J&K, Haryana, and Delhi. Urgent disaster preparedness advised.

By Ground Report Desk
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Himachal Pradesh faces risk of 7 Magnitude earthquake, predictions warn

Himachal Pradesh faces risk of 7 Magnitude earthquake, predictions warn Photograph: (X/@epic_earthquake)

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The Earthquake Research & Analysis team warned of a potential earthquake near Himachal Pradesh. Predictions suggest the epicentre could be in the Doda, Chamba, Dharamshala, and Kangra regions. Tremors could impact neighbouring states, including Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Haryana, and Delhi.

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The prediction, shared on their X (formerly Twitter) account, included an intriguing factor contributing to the seismic risk: “Midnight Sun & Moon opposite force near this location.” This phenomenon, they suggest, might influence tectonic stress in the region.

If realised, this event would mark the region’s first earthquake exceeding 7 magnitude in over 120 years. The prediction underscores the seismic vulnerability of Himachal Pradesh, much of which lies in zones V and IV of India’s seismic map.

Seismic activity is a common occurrence in Himachal Pradesh. Seven districts—Chamba, Kullu, Kangra, Una, Hamirpur, Mandi, and Bilaspur—are classified under the most severe seismic zone (Zone V), facing a persistent risk of high-intensity earthquakes. Zone V regions are prone to seismic events exceeding intensity 9 on the Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik (MSK) scale, while Zone IV areas, including Shimla, Kinnaur, and Sirmaur, face seismic intensities of 8.

Himachal’s seismic history reveals a grim pattern. The 1905 Kangra earthquake, magnitude 7.8, claimed over 20,000 lives. In the last century, the state recorded 80 earthquakes above magnitude 4, and low-intensity tremors occur almost five times a month. This activity stems from the ongoing collision between the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates, with the Indian plate moving at 44 mm/year.

Past prediction 

Earthquake Research & Analysis predicts Himachal Pradesh’s seismic trends. Their research is early, and findings are shared for documentation. Their platform has gained attention for previous predictions, including accurate forecasts of seismic activity near Lhasa, Tibet, in November 2024. Tremors ranging from 3.1 to 3.6 magnitudes were recorded after their analysis, which warned of a potential 6–6.5 magnitude earthquake.

Another analysis predicted a significant 7.5-magnitude earthquake near Nepal and Sikkim, likely in nine years. These findings highlight the Himalayas’ ongoing tectonic strain and potential for future seismic events.

Himachal Pradesh, where disaster preparedness remains a challenge, should take note of the latest prediction. Despite state efforts, a 2011 survey revealed that 56% of structures in Himachal were built with unsafe materials like mud and unburnt bricks. Rapid urbanisation and infrastructure projects in eco-sensitive zones worsen the impact of seismic activity.

Experts recommend early warning systems like the Google Earthquake Alert app for crucial seconds of advance notice. Adherence to earthquake-resistant building codes is vital to minimise damage and save lives.

According to a study published in 2021, Himachal Pradesh could experience a massive earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater on the Richter scale in the future. The findings have significant implications for seismic hazard planning, earthquake prediction, and understanding the causes of large-scale earthquakes in active collision zones.

Scientists have raised concerns about the increasing strain energy stored beneath the Himalayas. Minimal release of this energy through microseismic or megathrust earthquakes suggests a growing risk of a significant rupture event. The Main Himalayan Detachment Fault, in particular, is primed for a large earthquake.

The study highlights that ongoing moderate and microseismic activity has exacerbated strain accumulation, making the region highly susceptible to a magnitude 8.0 earthquake in the future.

Dr. Sushil Kumar, Scientist 'G' and Head of Geophysics at the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology (WIHG), emphasized the need for preparedness

"As the entire Himalayan region is vulnerable to earthquakes, it is crucial to build an earthquake-resilient society through preparedness, good construction practices, and the installation of early warning systems, especially in densely populated areas along the Himalayan arc."

The research, conducted by scientists from WIHG, Dehradun, and CSIR-National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI), Hyderabad, analyzed seismic activity, tectonics, and potential earthquake risks in the Western Himalayan segment. The team included Dr. Sushil Kumar (WIHG), Dr. Mahesh Parija (WIHG & NGRI), Dr. Shubhasmita Biswal (WIHG & IIT KGP), Dr. V.M. Tiwari (Director, NGRI), Dr. N. Purnachandra Rao (Chief Scientist, NGRI), and Dr. Narendra Kumar (WIHG).

The study noted a slip deficit exceeding 8.0 in the Western Himalayan Seismic Gap, located between the epicentral zones of the 1905 Kangra earthquake and the 1975 Kinnaur earthquake. Alarmingly, only 3-5% of the energy stored since the last major earthquake has been released, leaving the remaining energy equivalent to that of a magnitude 8.0 event.

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