La Niña to continue into early 2023, prolonging drought, flooding

The floods and droughts caused by the La Niña Phenomenon in the world could last until March 2023, according to a recent alert from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Global Seasonal Climate Forecast

The Organization indicates that there is a 75% probability that La Niña will persist during December 2022 and February 2023, and a 60% probability that it will continue during January-March 2023.

Meanwhile, the chances of none of the climatic phenomena (neither La Niña nor El Niño), known as ENSO-neutral conditions, are 55% during February and April 2023, according to studies carried out by the WMO, which They are based on expert input and forecasts from around the world.

Rainfall in some parts of the world, and drought in others, have a 75% chance of continuing through February.

Despite stubborn La Niña in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, warmer-than-widespread-average sea surface temperatures elsewhere are forecast to dominate the air temperature forecast for December-February 2022/2023.

This will contribute to above-normal temperatures over land areas in the Northern Hemisphere, except for northwestern North America. The greatest increase in chances for above-normal temperatures is along the Arctic coast of Asia, northern Central America, the eastern maritime continent, and New Zealand.

“La Niña is a natural phenomenon, but it is occurring in a context of human-induced climate change. This is increasing global temperatures, making our weather more extreme and affecting seasonal rainfall patterns,” said WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas.

La Niña occurred three years in a row

This is the third time since 1950 that La Niña has occurred three years in a row. “This persistent La Niña event is prolonging dry and flood conditions in the affected regions. The international community is particularly concerned by the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe for millions of people in the Horn of Africa, brought about by the longest and most severe drought in recent history,” said Professor Taalas.

In the case of the African region mentioned by the Secretary General, more than 20 million people suffer from severe food insecurity in Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia, while in some parts of Somalia they may face the risk of famine by the end of the year.

Rainfall in many regions has given rise to La Niña characteristics this year. However, there are drier-than-usual conditions in Patagonia in South America and southwestern North America, as well as in eastern Africa, according to the WMO State of the Global Climate 2022 interim report.

On the other hand, it has been wetter than usual in southern Africa, northern South America, eastern Australia, southeast Asia; in Pakistan experienced devastating rains in July and August.

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