Ground Report | New Delhi: Heatwave events will continue to increase; A heatwave occurs when the temperature is above the set limit for several consecutive days for a long time. It generally adversely affects human health and the ecosystem. However, little is known about heatwaves in tropical developing countries such as Southeast Asia.
The study is published in the journal Earth Future, Scientists have been constantly informing people that extreme events and their intensity will increase in the future as the average temperature around the world increases. Now this study has examined three things including the frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves in a changing climate .
The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also suggested that increases in seasonal and annual mean temperatures are expected to be greater in tropical and subtropical than in mid-latitudes. This implies that Southeast Asia may suffer more from global warming than other parts of the world. However, it is not clear how heatwaves in Southeast Asia will change under global warming.
The researchers estimated heatwave changes in Southeast Asia under different global warming levels, based on the Community Earth System model. According to the study, with increasing heat in Southeast Asia, more frequent heatwaves and their duration are expected to be longer and higher temperatures. There will also be a difference in heatwave depending on the location. The heatwave characteristics between the oceanic continent and the Indochina peninsula may vary depending on the response to global warming.
Heatwave events will continue to increase
About 57.6 percent of the land in Southeast Asia will experience extreme heat at least once every 20 years, the researcher said.
Researcher Wang Lin warned that heatwave events, which used to happen only once in 50 years, could now happen every time due to changes in the current climate. In a warming world, heatwaves will now be more frequent, and in Southeast Asia, its effects will increase steadily throughout the year.
The researchers looked at a range of scenarios – from low to high CO2 emissions emphasizing week-long heatwaves that have broken records in the past. Under the high emissions scenario, record-breaking heat waves are two to seven times and three to twenty-one times more likely in 2021–2050 and 2051–2080, respectively, than in the past three decades.
In the Northern Hemisphere, such heatwaves in the mid-latitudes are expected to occur every six to thirty-seven years over the time period 2051–2080.
The researchers observed that these events occurred in short bursts during periods of accelerated climate warming. However, they are less likely to occur during dormant periods with a very little warming, experts indicate.