Warmer winters in Kashmir raise concerns over apple and crop yields

With rising temperatures in Kashmir, agricultural experts anticipate an early bloom of almond, cherry, peach, and plum trees, raising concerns about potential damage to commercial crops, particularly apples.

According to experts at Sheri Kashmir University of Agriculture and Science Kashmir (SKUAST-K), unusually warm temperatures during the crucial winter phase could lead to an early bloom, which may negatively impact crop yield.

"Apple trees require adequate chilling hours, and if the temperatures remain high, their chilling requirement may not be met. This could result in poor blooming and lower production," Dr. Rehana Rasool, chief agriculture scientist, told Ground Report.

However, she states that the forecasted wet spell in the coming days is seen as a crucial factor in stabilising the temperature. "If the wet spell occurs, it will help lower temperatures and ensure water reserves for May and June. The previous snowfall, following months of drought, did not retain much moisture, making the current precipitation vital for the agricultural sector," the expert explained.

She indicates that a premature bloom could be detrimental. "If the early bloom continues and is followed by western disturbances in March, the drop in temperatures and excessive rainfall can cause petal shedding and hinder pollination, leading to reduced yields," an expert stated.

At present, no advisory has been issued by agricultural authorities, as farm operations are currently limited. However, farmers are advised to closely monitor temperature patterns and avoid pruning in freezing conditions.

The coming days will be crucial in determining the extent of impact on the region's horticulture. The agricultural community is hopeful that the forecasted wet spell will provide much-needed relief to commercial crops.

Apple growers in Kashmir are grappling with erratic climatic conditions as an unusual early bloom raises concerns over fruit yield and the region’s economy. Agricultural experts and orchardists warn that the premature flowering, triggered by inconsistent weather patterns, may lead to a significant reduction in production.

Stakeholders Speak: Economic Fallout

Stakeholders associated with the apple industry expressed their concerns over the financial impact of these climatic changes. "Apple is the backbone of Kashmir’s economy. If production is affected, it will severely impact the livelihood of thousands of orchardists," Bashir Ahmad Bashir, president of the apex trade body in J&K, said.

According to Bashir, the issue is further aggravated by the absence of a functional crop insurance scheme. He stated that while the government has acknowledged the need for such an initiative, the forum claim that ‘no’ concrete steps have been taken for its implementation.`

"We had requested crop insurance, but it is yet to be rolled out effectively. Without it, orchardists are left vulnerable to losses due to climate variability," he added.

The agricultural and horticulture communities in the region continue to be anxious, anticipating additional government intervention and policy support. While deliberations are underway within, the growers urge immediate action to mitigate the long-term effects of climate change on Kashmir’s economy.

Precipitation in 2024

Notably, for the past five consecutive years, Jammu and Kashmir has received unprecedented deficit rainfall, with 2024 being the driest year in the past 50 years.

Faizan Arif Keng, an independent weatherman who forecast weather in J&K, states that 2024 saw the lowest rainfall in five decades and touched close to the previous low of 802.5 mm recorded in 1974, marking the driest year in the past 50 years.

The precipitation levels plunged to just 870.9 mm against the normal annual average of 1232.3 mm in 2024—a significant deficit of 29%.

According to Faizan, 2024 marked the fifth consecutive year of below-normal precipitation in the Union Territory.

In 2023, a rainfall of 1146.6 mm was recorded, marking a deficit of 7%, while 2022 witnessed 1040.4 mm of rainfall, recording a deficit of 16%, he shared, adding that 2021 recorded a rainfall of 892.5 mm, marking a deficit of 28%, and 2020 experienced 982.2 mm of precipitation with a deficit of 20%.

Sharing monthly data for 2024, Keng informed me that January recorded a staggering 91% shortfall, while February and March saw deficits of 17% and 16%, respectively.

Although April offered some respite with a 48% surplus, it was the only month to witness excess rainfall, he said.

“Deficits resumed from May onwards, with shortfalls of 67% in May, 38% in June, 36% in July, and 2% in August. The situation worsened toward the end of the year, with deficiencies of 41% in September, 74% in October, 69% in November, and 58% in December,” Keng added.

Policymakers and residents alike are alarmed by the impact of such deficiencies, which are already visible in the form of reduced water availability for agriculture, hydropower, and drinking purposes.

The declining rainfall over the years emphasises the urgent need for climate adaptation measures and comprehensive water management strategies to mitigate the effects of prolonged dry spells in Jammu and Kashmir.

Pertinently, Jammu and Kashmir is presently witnessing the prolonged dry spell, with the first three weeks of this month recording the deficit rainfall of 81 percent from January 1 to January 22.

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