Coal demand to hit 877 crore tonnes in 2024, rising 1%: IEA report

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global coal demand is expected to reach unprecedented levels in 2024. In its latest report, "Coal 2024: Analysis and Forecast for 2024," the agency predicts coal consumption will climb to 877 crore tonnes, marking a new record.

The report notes that while global coal demand increased by 1% in 2023, the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years. In 2021, coal demand surged by 7.7% following the COVID-19 recovery, while growth rates moderated to 4.7% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023.

The power sector remains the largest consumer of coal, driving steady demand. In 2024, coal-fired power generation is expected to reach a record 10,700 terawatt-hours globally. However, the increasing adoption of renewable energy is gradually reducing reliance on coal for electricity production.

China, the world's largest coal consumer, will significantly drive global demand. The IEA estimates China's coal consumption will grow by 1% in 2024, reaching 490 crore tonnes. India, the second-largest consumer, is expected to see a 5% increase, bringing its consumption to 130 crore metric tonnes—a level previously achieved only by China.

Conversely, coal demand in developed regions like the European Union and the United States continues to decline. The European Union’s demand is projected to drop by 12% in 2024, while the US is expected to see a 5% decline. However, these decreases are less steep compared to the significant drops in 2023.

The report suggests global coal demand may stabilize around 2024 levels, with projections estimating consumption at 887 crore tonnes by 2027. This reflects the growing influence of renewable energy, particularly in China, which is rapidly expanding its solar and wind power infrastructure along with nuclear energy development.

Despite projected stabilization, uncertainties remain. Seasonal changes in renewable energy output and weather patterns, especially in China, could lead to fluctuations in coal demand. Additionally, rising electricity needs from transportation, data centers, and other sectors may sustain medium-term demand.

IEA Director Keisuke Sadamori highlighted the impact of clean energy growth on coal consumption. “The rapid growth of clean energy is reshaping the global power sector, which uses two-thirds of the world’s coal,” he said.

Coal demand is rising in emerging economies like India, Indonesia, and Vietnam due to economic growth, population increases, and industrial expansion. These countries are seeing rising coal consumption in both the power and industrial sectors.

The report estimates global coal trade will hit a record 1.55 billion tonnes in 2024, with Asia as the central hub. Major importers are China, India, Japan, Korea, and Vietnam, while Indonesia and Australia lead as exporters.

However, the IEA warns that reliance on coal poses significant challenges for climate change. Coal is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, and its use impacts global climate goals. Strong policies and alternative energy sources will be essential to reducing coal dependence.

As global coal demand hits new highs, the world faces the dual challenge of meeting energy needs while mitigating the environmental consequences of coal consumption.

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