Ground Report | New Delhi: Climate change Malaria and dengue; The climate crisis may prolong the season of activity of dangerous mosquitoes – carriers of deadly diseases. High temperature, precipitation, and humidity will contribute to the fact that insects will invade new regions. These conclusions were reached by specialists from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), together with an international group of scientists, the study was published in the journal Lancet Planetary Health.
Climate change Malaria and dengue
They built six models that took into account climate change and the impact of warming on the spread of dangerous diseases, then calculated the forecast. According to them, if CO2 emissions remain at the same level, then by the end of the century the temperature will exceed pre-industrial values by 3.7 ° C.
The researchers believe that the increase in greenhouse gas emissions has made mosquitoes more dangerous because global warming affects the length of the season for transmission of disease to humans with insect bites.
In addition, scientists predicted that if the global temperature rises to 3.7 degrees by 2100, the number of deaths from the two most common mosquito-borne diseases in the world will rise dramatically.
Increase in global average temperature
“An increase in global average temperature will increase climatic suitability for both diseases,” the scientists concluded.
According to research, if the temperature continues to rise at this rapid rate, then in the next 50 years, the time taken for the spread of malaria in Africa, including India, will increase by one month and the spread of dengue by about four months. As a result, by 2078, about 89.3 percent of the world’s population will be living in areas where malaria is at risk of spreading. Similarly, by 2080, about 850 million people will be living in places where dengue is prone to spread.
If we look at the data released in the World Malaria Report 2020 released by the World Health Organization, according to it there were 229 million cases of malaria in 2019, out of which 4.09 lakh people died. At the same time, about half of the world’s population is under threat. Most of its cases were reported in Africa, while about 90 percent of the deaths due to them occurred in Africa itself. At the same time, about 15.6 crores of these cases were also reported in India.
400 million people suffer every year
Dengue is also a mosquito-borne disease, which is found in tropical and sub-tropical climates around the world. Most of its cases are found in urban and semi-urban areas. Its cases have also seen an increase during the last few decades. According to the WHO, about 400 million people worldwide suffer from it every year.
Earlier, on April 18, Vladimir Semyonov, deputy director of the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that in the next 50 years in Russia it will become warmer by three to four degrees, which will lead to dangerous consequences. As the scientist said, in order to avoid negative consequences, all countries need to limit greenhouse gas emissions, this measure is spelled out in the Paris Climate Agreement.