Big volcano may erupt in this century: IPCC report

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned of the danger of climate change, saying that a major volcanic eruption could happen in this century. This eruption will reduce the temperature of the Earth's surface globally for one to three years. At the same time, it will also affect the global monsoon and will change many factors affecting the climate.

If such an explosion occurs, then climate change caused by human activities will be temporarily responsible for it. The IPCC has made this estimate on the basis of detailed studies of climate science and historical evidence.

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According to the report, explosive volcanoes have been the biggest factor in climate change before the industrial period. Records show that in the past 2,500 years, volcanoes with an effective radiative strength (ERF) of more than -1W m-2 (watt sqm) erupt twice in 100 years.

Big volcano may erupt

The 1991 eruption mt Pinatubo is an example (volcanoes with negative ERF produce more ash and smoke, which cools the climate, while volcanoes with positive ERF increase heat).

During this period 8 large volcanoes with ERF -5W m-2 have erupted. Examples of this are the volcanoes that erupted in 1257 on the Samalas Mountains of Indonesia and the Tambora Mountains in 1815. Volcanoes like Mount Samalas erupt on average once every 1000 years. According to the report, three times every 400 years, there is one volcano with a -1W m-2 ERF. According to the IPCC report, large volcanic extremes increase the frequency of freezing and this cold can continue for decades.

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The volcanoes of Tambora and Samalas had an effect on global temperature. After the Tambora volcano, the height of the mountain was reduced from 14,100 feet to 10,000 feet. The ash and smoke emanating from this volcano covered the northern hemisphere, due to which sunlight did not reach the earth properly and the surface temperature decreased by 3 °C. The summer season did not come in the year the volcano erupted.

This is the reason why 1815 is called the "Year without Summer". That year, in many parts of the world, crops had failed and starvation conditions had arisen. According to the report, studies suggest that potential volcanoes could temporarily prevent global temperatures from rising to 1.5 °C in the early 21st century.

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