Atlantic Ocean current at risk, How you may endure dramatic weather changes

• Researchers predict collapse of Atlantic Ocean currents by 2060 due to greenhouse gas emissions.
• Potential consequences include a colder future for Europe and increased warming in the tropics.
• Limited direct monitoring of AMOC since 2004 hinders complete understanding of its slowing trend.

In a stark warning about the potential consequences of continued greenhouse gas emissions, researchers at the University of Copenhagen have revealed that the vital ocean currents responsible for redistributing heat, cold and precipitation in the Atlantic region could stop work by 2060. Contrary to previous beliefs about the impact of climate change on Europe, this collapse of the ocean current system could lead to a colder future for the continent.

Ocean current collapse predicted

Published in the prestigious journal Nature Communications, the study by researchers from the Niels Bohr Institute and the Department of Mathematical Sciences used advanced statistical tools and 150 years of ocean temperature data to predict the collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation, also known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

The researchers have found a 95% certainty that the AMOC will stop operating between 2025 and 2095, with the most likely time for this event being 2057. This event would cause far-reaching consequences, such as increased warming in the tropics and increased storm activity in the North Atlantic region.

Professor Peter Ditlevsen of the Niels Bohr Institute highlighted the seriousness of the situation, stating that the closure of AMOC could lead to significant changes in the global distribution of heat and precipitation. While Europe may experience a cooling trend amid general global warming, the closure of AMOC could lead to more challenging living conditions in the already warm tropics.

How do they know?

A statement from the University of Copenhagen said the new research came after scientists used advanced statistical tools and ocean temperature data from the past 150 years. He said:

The researchers have calculated with 95% certainty that the ocean current, known as the Thermohaline Circulation or Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), will collapse between 2025 and 2095. It is most likely that this collapse will occur in 2057, in 34 years, and it could cause major challenges, particularly warming in the tropics and increased storms in the North Atlantic region.

Peter Ditlevsen added: "While a cooling of Europa may appear less severe as the globe as a whole gets warmer and heat waves occur more frequently, this closure will contribute to further warming of the tropics, where the Rising temperatures have already led to challenging living conditions."

He added: "Our result underscores the importance of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible."

Stefan Rahmstorf at the University of Potsdam, Germany, added, "The exact location of the AMOC tipping point remains highly uncertain, however, this new study contributes to the growing body of evidence suggesting that it is much nearer than previously believed. While one study alone offers limited evidence, when multiple investigations yield similar results, the matter becomes significantly more serious, particularly when dealing with a risk that we strongly desire to eliminate with 99.9% certainty. Consequently, we are now faced with the possibility that we may indeed cross the tipping point within the next ten to twenty years".

Early warning signals

The findings challenge conclusions drawn by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose latest report considered an abrupt change in the thermohaline circulation highly unlikely during this century.

The prediction of AMOC collapse is based on analysis of early warning signals observed in unstable ocean currents. By examining sea surface temperatures in a specific area of the North Atlantic since 1870, the researchers were able to deduce the strength of AMOC, which had only been directly measured for the past 15 years.

Professor Susanne Ditlevsen from UCPH's Department of Mathematical Sciences explained that the new and improved statistical tools allowed for a more robust estimate of the likely timing of AMOC collapse, a feat that was previously unattainable.

"Shutting down the AMOC can have very serious consequences for Earth's climate, for example, by changing how heat and precipitation are distributed globally. While a cooling of Europe may seem less severe as the globe as a whole becomes warmer and heat waves occur more frequently, this shutdown will contribute to an increased warming of the tropics, where rising temperatures have already given rise to challenging living conditions," says Professor Peter Ditlevsen from the Niels Bohr Institute.

"Our result underscores the importance of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible," says the researcher.

Past extreme climate changes recorded

The thermohaline circulation, which has operated in its current mode since the last ice age, has experienced abrupt climatic jumps between its current state and a collapsed state 25 times during ice age climates. Known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events, these past climate changes were extreme, with temperature fluctuations of 10 to 15 degrees over a decade. By contrast, current climate change shows a warming of 1.5 degrees over a century.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation plays a crucial role in the global system of ocean currents, contributing significantly to the redistribution of heat from the tropics to the northernmost areas of the Atlantic region, particularly Western Europe.

At high latitudes, the AMOC facilitates the conversion of surface waters into deep ocean currents to the south, creating space for equatorial surface waters to move northward. As a result, the thermohaline circulation is vital to maintaining the relatively mild climate of the North Atlantic region.

"Using new and improved statistical tools, we've made calculations that provide a more robust estimate of when a collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation is most likely to occur, something we had not been able to do before," explains Professor Susanne Ditlevsen of UCPH's Department of Mathematical Sciences.

The researchers emphasized the urgent need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to prevent the potential collapse of AMOC. With the anticipated consequences of its closure, the study underscores the critical importance of taking steps to safeguard the delicate balance of Earth's climate system.

As the global community grapples with the escalating climate crisis, the study serves as a timely reminder that immediate and effective action is essential to ensure a sustainable future for the planet.

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